Goodman: Is this the final season for Nick Saban?

It’s bold prediction time for the college football season, but we’re going to leave all the fun depth-chart projections at Alabama to the real experts.
Who’s going to win the national championship? Who’s getting fired first (after Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff, of course)? Who’s going to be the starting quarterback for the Crimson Tide? These are all worthy questions going into the first full week of games, but they all feel secondary to the speculation that this might be the final season for a coach who has bent college football to his will over the last 16 years.
College football is finally back, praise the heavens and the saints and the touchdowns and the haints. At this point in the season, we’re all just kicking towards those big field goals in the sky. Alabama opens things up at 6:30 p.m. on Saturday against Middle Tennessee State. I’m expecting an Alabama victory against the Blue Raiders, but, believe it or not, that’s not one of my bold predictions. This one is: Will Alabama win the SEC? Not this year and maybe never again with Saban as the coach.
The hope is that Nick Saban never retires, but there is reason for concern in Tuscaloosa after the Sabans recently purchased a colossal retirement home on an exclusive island off the coast of Florida. It’s a swanky pad fit for a king, and Saban will always wear the crown in college football even if he never actually wins another ring ever again. Saban last won a national championship in 2020 (his so-called “ultimate team”), but Georgia and Saban acolyte Kirby Smart raised the trophy in 2021 and 2022.
It’s still bigger news in college football when Alabama loses than when Georgia wins, so as long as the mystique remains so will the dynasty. If Georgia wins three in a row, however, and does something that Saban was unable to accomplish, then the weight of power will shift.
Is this the final season for Saban? I’d be shocked if he went out of the game without eclipsing the 300-win mark for his college career. Saban is officially at 280 career wins. He’ll pass that mark next season if he’s still coaching, and it would surprise everyone in Saban’s circle if he called it quits before adding his name to college football’s exclusive club of all-time greats.
Here’s the list of names in the highest level of college football with at least 300 victories: Joe Paterno (409), Bobby Bowden (346), Paul Bryant (323) and Pop Warner (311). That’s it and it’s a list that seems incomplete without Saban’s name.
Before Saban becomes a full-time Florida Man, I’m sure he’d like to go out a national champion at least one more time. I just don’t know if that’s in his future. As I pointed out at SEC Media Days, the game is conspiring against Saban like never before. The expanded College Football Playoff, NIL collectives offering seven figures for elite high school quarterbacks and conference realignment are all mechanisms of the college game designed to mute Saban of his superpowers.
Big changes are coming to college football in 2024, and Saban will escort Alabama into the new era barring an expected twist. Will Saban win another national championship before retiring? The answer is no. That bold prediction to begin the 2023 college football season isn’t a shot at Saban. It’s simply based on the evolution of the game. It no longer makes sense for players to stick around Alabama for three seasons without breaking into the starting lineup when they can make a significant amount of money for transferring to another school.
As Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin pointed out this summer, players operating in this current system of college football can score three major paydays throughout their careers. The first comes during recruiting, the second hits when a player transfers the first time, and a third haul of cash is available to players who can transfer again after graduating but still have remaining eligibility. For example, Oregon quarterback Bo Nix graduated from Auburn before moving out west. If he’s smart, then he got paid well to do it.
Money isn’t corrupting the sport any more than it used to despite what coaches and commissioners would want the public to believe. The sport of college football has always been corrupt. The only difference now is that players have a little bit of power and that is causing guys like Saban to figure out this new world on the fly.
Why didn’t Saban release a two-deep depth chart this week? With players now getting paid, it makes more sense to keep things a secret as long as possible. Which teams in the SEC have the most to lose by releasing depth charts? Probably the ones who decided not to do it: Alabama, LSU and Texas A&M.
Alabama’s biggest game of the season remains the Iron Bowl, but there is much more at stake for Alabama in its Week Two clash against Texas. Recruits will make decisions about their futures based on that game. When Saban missed on Texas quarterback Arch Manning, it signaled another crack in the dynasty’s foundation. A loss at home to Texas would be another. Is Jalen Milroe the best option at quarterback to lead Alabama to victory against Texas? That will be the No.1 thing on Saban’s mind this week against MTSU.
Here’s my second bold prediction for the 2023 college football season. The player who starts the second half for Alabama against MTSU will be the quarterback who takes the field against Texas. Milroe might be Alabama’s most talented quarterback, but that doesn’t mean he gives Alabama the best chance to win a big game. Mistakes by Milroe against Texas A&M in 2022 nearly cost Alabama what should have been an easy victory.
That brings us to my third and final bold prediction going into the 2023 season. I’m picking Texas A&M to win the SEC West in the division’s final season of existence and then defeat Georgia in the SEC championship game (I guess that’s actually two predictions). The Aggies have an underrated quarterback (Conner Weigman), a new offensive coordinator in Bobby Petrino and play Alabama and Auburn in College Station.
Welcome to the final season of college football as we know it. No one needs a depth chart to understand that Saban’s grip on this game isn’t what it used to be.