Longhorns Wire: Final Big 12 record predictions ahead of media days

July 10, 2023 11:33 am CT Big 12 media week is upon us. The Texas Longhorns enter the week of discussion as the clear favorite to win the Big 12 title. Naysayers will naysay, but the reality is that no team returns or adds what Texas has in the fold for 2023. It’s hard to naysay this: Texas has the best wide receiver room, offensive line, tight end, secondary and individual linebacker in the Big 12. If not Texas, who has better? Kansas State returns some key pieces from last year’s title team and Oklahoma brings in several starter caliber players through the transfer portal. Even so, K-State’s departures are more significant than most, while Oklahoma had plenty of starter roles to fill. Outside of the three above teams, TCU and Texas Tech stand as the primary contenders, with Kansas, UCF and Baylor not far behind. On the whole, the Big 12 is a good league in the middle. It simply doesn’t have much firepower at the top. Here’s a look at what the Big 12 standings could look like in its final season with Oklahoma and Texas. 14 Oklahoma State Cowboys Sarah Phipps-USA TODAY Sports Record: 5-7 Conference Record: 2-7 I’m doubling down on my initial analysis of Oklahoma State as well as a couple other teams. The Cowboys simply lost way too much contribution from last season. The incoming players aren’t good enough to inspire confidence that they’ll improve the team. We could see why head coach Mike Gundy has been so vocal against the transfer portal. 13 West Virginia Mountaineers Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports Record: 5-7 Conference Record: 3-6 It’s easy to be down on West Virginia head coach Neal Brown and company in recent seasons. I have been as critical as anyone of what is going on in Morgantown. The reality is, Brown was given an impossible situation to fix and made the best of it. The team secured wins over Texas and Oklahoma in the last two seasons. The Mountaineers are going to fight this season, but the schedule is simply too daunting for bowl eligibility. 12 Houston Cougars Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports Record: 5-7 Conference Record: 3-6 Houston probably won’t be very good this season. Then again, last season I predicted 10 wins for Oklahoma and 5 wins for TCU. Preseason perception isn’t always reality. The UTSA game stands as a potential loss, as well as eight or nine other games on the Cougars’ schedule. That said, the team should score points in droves in 2023. 11 Iowa State Cyclones Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports Record: 6-6 Conference Record: 3-6 Among the more bold picks in this prediction, Iowa State goes 6-6 but beats its too most hated 2023 opponents, Iowa and Texas. The Cyclones went 4-8 last season despite the nation’s No. 4 defense in college football. If the offense has any pulse, the ‘Clones will win games in 2023. The home crowd should bring an especially wild atmosphere when the Texas Longhorns come to town. I would expect that game to take place under the lights in the evening. 10 Cincinnati Bearcats Ncaaf Navy Midshipmen At Cincinnati Bearcats Nov 6 0079 Record: 6-6 Conference Record: 3-6 It’s hard not to like Top 30 defenses. That’s the kind of defense Cincinnati returns in 2023. Obviously, the group lost some significant contributors, but there’s enough remaining to expect good play this season. Cincinnati’s ceiling is dependent on its abysmal offense. If transfer quarterback Emory Jones can get things rolling, the Bearcats might pull an upset or two. 9 BYU Cougars Gabriel Mayberry-USA TODAY Sports Record: 6-6 Conference Record: 3-6 BYU has a relatively difficult schedule. The list includes Oklahoma, TCU, Texas and Texas Tech. Even so, the Cougars are capable of making a bowl game with the roster in place. Transfer quarterback Kedon Slovis should make or break the season for BYU. 8 Baylor Bears Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports Record: 7-5 Conference Record: 4-5 Baylor can reach the Big 12 championship at its best. It can also flounder like it did last season. There are a wide range of outcomes for the Bears in the 2023 season, and much of that depends on getting serviceable play from their run defense. If they get that, the team could create problems for opposition. 7 UCF Golden Knights Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports Record: 8-4 Conference Record: 5-4 Central Florida is primed for a huge season in 2023. There’s a temptation to predict an even better record for the Knights. Dual threat quarterback John Rhys Plumlee is a championship caliber quarterback, and it wouldn’t surprise if UCF is in Arlington. We’re just not going to predict that. UCF’s trip to Norman to face Oklahoma will be an interesting opportunity for Gus Malzahn to shake up the Big 12 standings. If they pull off that upset, the Golden Knights could be looking at a 10-win season. 6 Kansas Jayhawks Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports Record: 8-4 Conference Record: 5-4 I’m comfortable going out on this limb. Kansas is an eight-win team in 2023. The Jayhawks return far more than everybody but Texas heading into the season. The team they return was pretty good. Kansas returns 10 of 11 offensive starters from a team that won seven games last year. I don’t see Kansas defeating Kansas State or Texas, but the team is good enough to beat almost anybody else in the conference. 5 Texas Tech Red Raiders Record: 8-4 Conference Record: 6-3 Texas Tech went 7-5 in the regular season last year. While it could make strides this season, the Raiders enjoyed their fair share of luck in 2022. I would expect the team to improve on its win total from last season, but the tough schedule does them no favors. Texas Tech will face Oregon, Kansas State, TCU and Central Florida at home with West Virginia, Baylor, BYU, Kansas and Texas on the road. 4 Oklahoma Sooners Record: 9-3 Conference Record: 6-3 There’s a lot to like about several Oklahoma players, but on the whole the roster still has limitations. We’ve noted the schedule, which past Oklahoma teams would roll through with ease. This group pales in comparison to Oklahoma rosters from 2017-2019. The receiver depth behind Jalil Farooq is either limited or suspect. So, too, are the offensive line, defensive line and cornerback rooms. The premium positions in football are quarterback, wide receiver, offensive tackle, defensive end and cornerback. We have questions about four of those five positions with Oklahoma. It will be interesting to see what players emerge for the Sooners. 3 TCU Horned Frogs Record: 9-3 Conference Record: 6-3 TCU is once again undervalued by many heading into the season. The Frogs had three first-team defensive players in the Big 12 media’s preseason superlative picks last week. That paired with the talent present on the offensive side has me buying the Horned Frogs this season. 2 Kansas State Wildcats Fsu V Oklahoma Second Half338 Record: 9-3 Conference Record: 6-3 The ‘Cats are back. After winning the Big 12 title last season, expect the team to finish toward the top of the conference again. Florida State transfer running back Treshaun Ward is infused into an offense led by quarterback Will Howard, wide receiver Phillip Brooks and a line that returns all five starters. A head-to-head win over TCU vaults K-State into the Big 12 championship game against our next team on the list. 1 Texas Longhorns Record: 10-2 Conference Record: 7-2 The Texas Longhorns are not back. They’re just better than everybody else in the Big 12. The receiver room is versatile enough that passing should be as easy as handing off for starting quarterback Quinn Ewers. It’s going to be difficult for defenses to have an answer for Xavier Worthy, Ja’Tavion Sanders, AD Mitchell, Jordan Whittington and Isaiah Neyor. The likelihood is there won’t be an answer outside of skilled secondaries from TCU and Iowa State. Texas wins the conference.