Going bowling? Analyzing, UTEP's 2023 football schedule and potential results

UTEP's 2023 football schedule doesn't look like much the Miners have faced before. There are four new Conference USA schools, two of whom are making their FBS debut. There are three Wednesday games, a Friday game and two power conference opponents, including one of the closest ones. Here is a scouting report and predictions for the UTEP season. at Jacksonville State, Aug. 26 UTEP didn't get any favors from the conference in terms of opening with a road game at the hardest place on the schedule to get to (it's in Alabama, not the big Jacksonville in Florida). The Miners have a substantial edge in scholarship numbers against a school transitioning to the FBS, but that matters less in Week 0 — this is Jacksonville State's first game as an FBS school — than it will later on in the year. Jacksonville State is a traditional FCS power that went 9-2 last year (including a loss at Tulsa) and returns its top two rushers, top two receivers and quarterback. It does have more to replace on its defense. The Gamecocks' coach is Rich Rodriguez, the former Michigan and Arizona coach, in his second season in Jacksonville. This is the type of game the Miners used to lose, the type of game they've won recently. This looks like one of the swing games on the schedule, perhaps the biggest game on the schedule given what comes in September. The start of last year's season was rocked by a Week 0 loss and the Miners can't do that again. Prediction: UTEP wins a close one. Incarnate Word, Sept. 2 This is another game trickier than it might look. Incarnate Word went 12-2 last year, losing by three points in the FCS semifinals at North Dakota State. Now the good news for UTEP: Incarnate Word is rebuilding after losing its top rushers, quarterback and receivers. The Miners have been good in these home games against FCS schools in the past three seasons. This is also one of those odd games where UTEP will be playing its second game — allegedly when a team makes it biggest improvement — while UIW is playing its opener. Playing in Week 0 is a good thing in general and this is the biggest payoff. Prediction: UTEP wins at Northwestern, Sept. 9 Northwestern is having an interesting offseason, which just led to the firing of coach Pat Fitzgerald amid hazing allegations. That takes the turmoil factor to a new level on the heels of a 1-11 season where the Wildcats were last in the Big 10 in turnover margin and offense. Northwestern was supposed to be better this year, but now, who knows. They do have one game to sort things out, as they have a Sunday Week 1 game at Rutgers that leaves them six days to turn around and play UTEP. The problem for the Miners is that they never win games like this, at power conference opponents. This seems like one they could win, but that pick would be going against all history. Prediction: UTEP loss at Arizona, Sept. 16 UTEP would have a better chance in this game if Jacob Cowing was playing for the Miners instead of against them. He was a difference-maker last year when the Wildcats (UTEP gets to play two Wildcats in a row!) improved to 5-7. Arizona seems a good bet to take another step forward this year as most of their principal offensive players are back. Just like the game before this one, this does not fit a profile of a Miner win. At least the travel isn't too onerous. UTEP should play the Arizona schools more often. Prediction: UTEP loss UNLV, Sept. 23 This game pits two programs with similar profiles. Both went 5-7 last year — the Rebels got there after a 4-1 start went south — both are mid-majors with UNLV in the Mountain West Conference the Miners want to be in. Also like the Miners, UNLV doesn't have a great recent history on the road, where the Rebels are 1-12 since the pandemic. That needs to be a deciding factor for the Miners. This also looks like a real swing game on the schedule, and it's one of the last Saturday games for a while. Prediction: UTEP wins Louisiana Tech, Sept. 29 The Bulldogs are coming off a season of struggles (3-9) that did include a home rout of UTEP. While Louisiana Tech lost to the Miners in their last Sun Bowl trip in 2021, they tend to do well against the Miners. They also tend to replace quarterbacks more often than not with a senior transfer, they are in that situation again this year, and therein lies a tale. Louisiana Tech looks like its going to go with transfer quarterback Hank Bachmeier from Boise State, whose last football game was getting devoured whole by UTEP in the Sun Bowl last September. That led to him entering the transfer portal the next morning. Welcome back, Hank! As for a prediction, UTEP should realistically split the UNLV-La. Tech homestand. If they can sweep it this could be an eight-win season or better, but the pick here is for the split. Prediction: UTEP loss at Florida International, Oct. 11 This is the first of three consecutive Wednesday games as C-USA is still working to come up with something catchy to promote a night that in October belongs to them. Thanks to a win last year in Charlotte in the aftermath of a hurricane, the Miners no longer have that endless Eastern Time Zone losing streak hanging over their head (they are now 1-27-1 in that time zone). FIU was the big market team no one wanted in the recent realignment so here the Panthers are, still in Conference USA. FIU, UTEP and Louisiana Tech were the only C-USA schools that didn't get any other offers. On the field, the Panthers were doing all right before losing their last four games to go 4-8, which included a desultory loss to the Miners in the Sun Bowl. No real reason they should have narrowed that gap, though the long trip for UTEP could be a wild card. What the Miners won't see at the end of that trip is much of a crowd, as Miami seems to have better things to do than watch FIU. Prediction: UTEP win New Mexico State, Oct. 18 This game should have been Thanksgiving weekend, which by all accounts is when UTEP wanted it. Presumably C-USA saw a way to promote this Wednesday night experiment with a rivalry game and here we are. The nation breathlessly awaits Miners-Aggies in the Sun Bowl on a Wednesday. A year ago UTEP was on the way to blowing out NMSU when the Miners failed to recover a muffed punt near the Aggie goal line. From there the game turned, and while UTEP did hang on, New Mexico State suddenly decided it was good. The Aggies ended up winning five of their last six, including a bowl game to get to 7-6. Quarterback Diego Pavia was the MVP of that bowl win and this will be a battle of New Mexico Military Institute alums, as UTEP's Gavin Hardison was Pavia's predecessor there. On paper, New Mexico State might look a little better than UTEP, though the Miners will probably be picked to finish ahead of the Aggies in most preseason polls. This is a toss-up where home field could be pivotal. Prediction: UTEP wins at Sam Houston State, Oct. 25 This is getting toward the time of year when UTEP's superior numbers over a program transitioning from the FCS will show. The timing also isn't great for the Bearkats, who won a national championship in the COVID season (spring of 2020) but went 5-4 last year. They do have a lot of players back as they begin play in the FBS. Given their schedule they should have at least four losses coming in to the Sun Bowl, probably more, and in fact are staring down the barrel of an 0-3 start (Brigham Young, Air Force, Houston). Prediction: UTEP wins Western Kentucky, Nov. 4 Saturday football comes back to the Sun Bowl and not surprisingly this is homecoming. What UTEP failed to do for homecoming was get a patsy. The Hilltoppers went 9-5 last year, won a bowl game, have a lot of that team back and are in a point with their program where that looks like a normal season. In fact, with all the turnover in the league, WKU or Liberty will be the preseason favorite. Remarkably given that they've been in the same conference for a decade, this is the first meeting between the schools since 2018. If UTEP ends up being as good as Western Kentucky this year it will be a major surprise. Prediction: UTEP loss at Middle Tennessee, Nov. 18 Middle will be the pick to finish third in Conference USA in preseason polls, though they do lose a quarterback and one of the nation's best receivers in Jaylin Lane. Once again UTEP will face a two-time zone trip to a place its never won, against a team that mostly owns the Miners. This looks like the middle of a losing streak. Prediction: UTEP loss Liberty, Nov. 25 So here's the Thanksgiving week game, against someone UTEP has no familiarity or history with. The Flames went 8-5 last year, which is a little below their recent standards, though still good enough to get coach Hugh Freeze the job at Auburn. This program has by far the most resources of any school in the league and should be an instant heavyweight in pretty much everything. Jamey Chadwell comes over from Coastal Carolina as the new coach so there's a new system here, though that probably won't mean much in Week 12. They return a quarterback and the top running back and should be a big favorite in this game. Prediction: UTEP loss New Mexico Bowl, Dec. 16 Albuquerque in mid-December, here comes UTEP if the season goes like these predictions indicate. They would be an underdog against a mid-level Mountain West team. The Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth could also be a possibility. Really, if UTEP gets to six wins, it would be happy anywhere, and projections indicate the Miners could get more than that. The reveal starts Aug. 26.