Asmussen | Illinois among top contenders in wide-open Big Ten West title race

Fans will get to watch Bret Bielema’s Illinois football team in action for the first time since its 19-10 loss to Mississippi State at the ReliaQuest Bowl on Jan. 2 in Tampa, Fla., when the Illini hold an open-to-the-public scrimmage on Friday night at Memorial Stadium in Champaign.
Octavio Jones/The News Gazette
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CHAMPAIGN — When the Cleveland.com preseason Big Ten poll is released on Tuesday, I can make one promise: Illinois is moving up.
Not sure how far, but up. A year ago, Bret Bielema’s team entered the season picked sixth in the Big Ten West by a panel of 36 conference media members.
As you know, Illinois outperformed expectations, finishing the season tied for the second in the West with a 5-4 conference record. And oh-so close to representing the division in the Big Ten title game.
The panel had actual champion Purdue pegged for fourth.
And the misses weren’t limited to the West.
In the East, the panel ranked eventual champion Michigan behind Ohio State. In fact, the Buckeyes got every first-place vote. Oops.
Let’s be honest, predicting what is going to happen with a bunch of 18- to 23-year-olds is an educated guess at best. Teams develop in different ways. With a wide range of results.
One of the teams on the list this year will end up being a huge surprise. And one is destined for disappointment. It is how sports work and a part of the reason we enjoy the whole exercise.
What usually isn’t taken into account are off-the-field issues for the players. Is there trouble in the locker room?
The interest in off-the-field matters jumped about 100 notches this summer with the Northwestern hazing scandal. The mess in Evanston should have caused every other program to take a deep look into their own houses.
Close call
Filling out my West ballot was a chore.
Four teams received consideration for the top spot, but I settled on Iowa at No. 1.
Why the Hawkeyes? Two things.
First, I know the defense is always going to be good. Even though the school lost some talented defenders, there is another batch of players ready to take over.
And second, the addition of former Michigan quarterback Cade McNamara. While I don’t see him as a Heisman candidate, he is the steadiest hand in charge of Iowa’s offense in years.
The Iowa offense will score enough points to keep coordinator Brian Ferentz on the job. The pressure is on, but in this case, that will be good. Perhaps, the boring Hawkeyes will be more creative.
Wisconsin is my No. 2. I buy into Luke Fickell as Mr. Fix It because it happened at Cincinnati.
The program needed a jolt in Madison and Fickell provides it. The run game is in great shape thanks to Braelon Allen. And Wisconsin always knows how to slow the other team. Wisconsin’s trip on Oct. 21 to C-U — Illinois’ homecoming game — should be a blast.
I’ve got Minnesota at No. 3, just ahead of Illinois. It’s a coin flip. P.J. Fleck has the Gophers on a winning track and his offense will remain solid despite a new starting quarterback.
The questions about Illinois start at quarterback, where Mississippi transfer Luke Altmyer replaces Tommy DeVito. He won’t have the advantage of pitching or handing the ball to Chase Brown. How the Illinois running backs develop is crucial. Reggie Love III and Josh McCray don’t have to be as good as Brown. They just have to get close.
The offensive line is solid, but must stay healthy.
Defense will again lead the way for Illinois. Makes sense coming off a monster season for the unit. But replacing three NFL draft picks in the secondary is a challenge. Helps that new coordinator Aaron Henry knows the players well. There won’t be a huge drop in production.
We will know a lot about Illinois’ title chances in the first month. If the team is 5-0 at the end of September, you can book a room in Indy for the Big Ten title game.
I’ve got Nebraska at No. 5, followed by Purdue and Northwestern, which is staring at 1-11.
The East is a beast
It’s a bit easier to figure out the top of the other Big Ten division. Some version of Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State.
The Wolverines will likely be tabbed first, which is how I voted.
Penn State is my No. 2 pick because of its stellar running game. Quarterback play will be improved, too.
Put the Buckeyes third followed by Maryland, Michigan State, Rutgers and Indiana. Don’t be surprised if there is a coaching change in Bloomington, Ind., with Hoosiers coach Tom Allen on the hot seat.
I’ve got Michigan over Iowa in the Big Ten title game. Hopefully not like the 2021 matchup when the Wolverines rolled 42-3.
I listed Illinois defensive lineman Johnny Newton on the defensive MVP ballot.
The preseason All-American is going to be on a bunch of lists going into the season. If he improves as much in 2023 as he did from 2021 to 2022, he will be a finalist for a string of awards.
Then off to the NFL.