Asmussen | When it comes to Illini football win total, take the over

It is a question I hear all the time. At the grocery store. While walking our pooch Murphy. How many games will Illinois football win in 2023? When folks asked that before the 2022 season, I went with some version of five or six. Man, was I wrong. Bret Bielema’s guys surprised everyone but those on the team by winning eight games, the most at the school since the 2007 season ended with a trip to the Rose Bowl. So what’s it going to be in 2023? I first look to the help of people who predict results for a living. Specifically, Las Vegas oddsmakers. BetOnline.ag set projected win totals for every Football Bowl Subdivision team. The over/under for Illinois wins this fall, according to BetOnline, is 6 1/2. That’s two more than it set for Illinois going into last season. Lesson learned. Led by Devon Witherspoon, Chase Brown and Tommy DeVito, the team overachieved in a big way. Can it happen again? Of course. Stack them up The win total projections for the 14 Big Ten schools range from 3 1/2 (Indiana and Northwestern) to 10 1/2 (Michigan and Ohio State). Illinois’ 6 1/2 wins is tied with Minnesota for the seventh highest. Between six-win Nebraska and seven-win Maryland. Other school win projections are Rutgers (4), Michigan State and Purdue (5 1/2), Iowa (7 1/2), Wisconsin (9) and Penn State (9 1/2). If Illinois hits just below the projection with six wins, it will earn another bowl bid. Illinois hasn’t had consecutive bowl seasons since 2010 and 2011, but a bowl bid should be the minimum expectation for Illinois moving forward. The bigger goal, at least for 2023, is winning the Big Ten West. After this year, that will no longer be an option. When Southern California and UCLA join the conference in 2024, it will be one, humongous, 16-team league. The top two teams will play for the title with what I assume will be monumentally complicated tiebreakers. In their last year in the Pac-12, the Trojans and Bruins are predicted to win 10 and 81/2 games, respectively. Yes, the Big Ten is about to get better. Early guess When the question comes this summer, I will be ready with an answer. Here is my week-by-week predictions for Bielema’s team. Remember, though most of the starting lineup is determined, there are still some unknowns. And I’ve never seen projected first-string quarterback Luke Altmyer suit up for a Big Ten team. A lot of what happens in 2023 will be in the hands of the Mississippi transfer. Start with the Sept. 2 season opener against defending Mid-American Conference champion Toledo. Jason Candle brings a talented, experienced team to Champaign. Illinois is a 10 1/2 point favorite against Toledo, according to oddsmakers. Put that one in the win column for Illinois in a close call. Make it 24-14, with a nice debut by new Illini defensive coordinator Aaron Henry. Week 2, Illinois travels to Kansas for one of its two Friday night games at 6:30 p.m. on Sept. 8. The Jayhawks are coming off a bowl season and play well at home. Illinois did good work on the road in 2022, beating Wisconsin and almost knocking off playoff-bound Michigan. I’ll go with Illinois in a squeaker, pushing its record to 2-0. But it won’t be 3-0. Penn State will bring a playoff contender to Champaign for the 11 a.m. kickoff on Sept 16. The Nittany Lions take a close one to drop the Illini to 2-1. Florida Atlantic improved its future by hiring Tom Herman as its coach. But the Owls won’t be up for the task Sept. 23. Illinois wins comfortably at home to improve to 3-1. The more heated rivalry with Purdue continues on Sept. 30 in West Lafayette, Ind. Bielema and new Boilers coach Ryan Walters will say all the right things leading up to the game. Purdue’s roster took huge hits to graduation and defections. Bielema wins Round 1 against his former defensive coordinator and Illinois improves to 4-1. Nebraska will be better with new coach Matt Rhule. But the former Baylor coach inherits a mess from Scott Frost. Illinois wins by 14 points at home underneath the Friday night lights on Oct. 6 to improve to 5-1. Last time Mike Locksley saw his former employer, the Maryland coach led his team to a comeback win in Champaign in 2021. This time, he welcomes Illinois to his home field and does it again, winning by three, when the Illini and Terrapins meet on Oct. 14 in College Park, Md. Illinois drops to 5-2. Bielema’s old school, Wisconsin, visits Memorial Stadium for the Illini’s homecoming on Oct. 21. Just a hunch Luke Fickell’s first year doesn’t go as smooth as some expect, and Illinois scores a second win in a row against Bucky to improve to 6-2. That guarantees another bowl bid. Clinching a winning season will have to wait past the Nov. 4 game at Minnesota. P.J. Fleck found the right formula with the Gophers, and the team will hold serve in the Big Ten West. Illinois falls to 6-3. The second consecutive winning season goes in the books with a lopsided home win against Indiana on Nov. 11 to improve to 7-3. When Bielema visits his alma mater Iowa on Nov. 18, the stakes will be huge, with a chance to stay in the West race. But Kirk Ferentz pulls out a close one to take control of the division as Illinois is now 7-4. Illinois closes at home Nov. 25 with a workmanlike victory against Northwestern and retains the Land of Lincoln trophy. Hopefully, future games in the series will be played earlier in the season to enhance the crowd size. By my count, Illinois will finish the regular season 8-4 with a bowl game to be announced. Maybe the Music City Bowl in Nashville, Tenn. Clip and save to remind how wrong I was.