An Auburn Q&A: What Paul Finebaum thinks about Auburn’s 2023 season

The calendar is about to turn to August, and the 2023 season ticks ever closer. But this is still the time for predictions. So AL.com sat down with a few national media members to get their thoughts on Auburn’s upcoming campaign. AL.com asked many of the same questions so fans can compare answers. On Wednesday, Cole Cubelic gave his own thoughts on Auburn. On Thursday, we heard from CBS Sports’ Barrett Sallee.
Next up is the SEC’s biggest talk show host: Paul Finebaum.
Finebaum hardly needs an introduction. He hosts The Paul Finebaum Show on SEC Network. He also appears on SEC Nation and is synonymous with SEC football.
Our conversation with Finebaum occurred after 5-star linebacker Demarcus Riddick’s commitment to Auburn. He discussed recruiting momentum, the state of football in Alabama and at the end, predicted Auburn’s record for this season.
The quotes have been edited slightly for clarity and brevity.
Cohen: At SEC Media Days, head coach Hugh Freeze said Auburn is a ‘work in progress.’ So what does Auburn need to work on?
Finebaum: “I think in some ways a lot of the work has been done, starting with day one, making Auburn fans believe in him. He has done that with great skill and poise. That was the first step. After that, you just have to go through the process of recruiting and getting ready for the season. He has, in my mind, aced that including what I felt was a virtuoso performance at Media Days. So then it comes down to the next step, and I think this is really where it matters most, doing something significant. Is that a win on the football field or a win in recruiting? Well, in this case, it’s a win in recruiting, which may be more important than a win on the football field. And he did that, yesterday with a commitment. We can’t make too much out of this moment in time because a lot of times you will go back, moving forward, go back and go, ‘When did it happen? What was a moment? When did the flare go into the sky? When did the fireworks go off?’ This may be that moment. Nobody knows anything other than what we’ve seen. It certainly feels like on the eve of the biggest recruiting weekend of his tenure, this very well could be that seminal moment that we look back on. You go back 42 years or with Pat Dye at Auburn, everybody always says it was Bo Jackson. It was actually a guy named Ben Tamburello. Who was going to Alabama and at the last second decided to go to Auburn. I covered it. So I remember saying like, ‘What’s going on at Alabama?’ This is different. It’s not the same thing. This is more about Auburn, than it is anybody, Alabama or Georgia. But Saban had his seminal moment as you probably heard. Julio Jones waited till National Signing Day. When he chose Alabama it was the moment. Tebow at Florida. One player doesn’t change the program. But what one player does it telegraphs to other players on the fence, ‘Hey, this is the hot place to go.’ This isn’t Alabama or Georgia. This isn’t an Ohio State. This is an ascending program. Get on board.”
Cohen: Now seeing Hugh Freeze get a big recruiting win like this, what are some of the biggest differences you’ve seen between how he’s approached recruiting versus Bryan Harsin?
Finebaum: “Oh, Bryan Harsin recruited? Thanks for letting me know. I’ve seen no evidence of that. That was the biggest flaw with Bryan Harsin. I personally liked him. I thought he was an excellent football coach, but he didn’t understand recruiting. He didn’t try to understand it. And that’s why he’s back in Boise right now doing whatever he’s doing. Hugh Freeze, this is part of the reason Hugh Freeze was hired. Everybody talks about oh he beat Nick Saban twice. Okay, great. He knows how to recruit. Look at the talent he stockpiled at Ole Miss. He didn’t need one single thing on the day he got there in relation to recruiting. He knew the territory. He knew the players for the most part. I mean, you’ve heard the stories already, Harsin wasn’t recruiting. That’s just that’s a story you’ll hear ad nauseam. So, Hugh Freeze checks every box in recruiting. He understands it. He gets it. He’s an exciting offensive coach and that bleeds over to both sides of the ball.”
Cohen: What level of patience should fans be willing to give the new staff?
Finebaum: “Well, I think Auburn fans will be incredibly patient primarily because, you know, they’ve never had a period like the last two years. The program was literally flatlined. I mean, there was no enthusiasm there was no excitement. I remember even after the Missouri win last year, fans were looking at each other like, ‘Did we even win the game? Do we really even care?’ Auburn has among the greatest fans in college football. Always has. And they understand the situation. They don’t need to be told, ‘Hey, you gotta be patient.’ They already know that. Now, there’s a shelf life on everything. But we’re still talking today pre-first game. I mean, there’ll be a moment where we’ll look at each other and go, ‘This is that moment. You better get things going.’ I don’t think it’s any time in the near future. I don’t think a record matters that much this year. I know everybody is judged probably more harshly today than ever before, but I don’t think there’s an ounce of pressure on Hugh Freeze right now in relation to expectations.
Auburn can’t afford for this not to work. That works in Hugh Freeze’s favor. I say that because you know, we harp on the last few years. What about the previous two years? I mean, Gus Malzahn should have been fired four, five years before he was. But you had a president that came in, that dug down, went against common and conventional wisdom, and gave him an extension. And here we are. Auburn fans hadn’t had moments, but so few moments in the last five or six years where that all helps Hugh Freeze out right now.”
Cohen: You mentioned the school’s administration. Something Hugh Freeze has talked a lot about is alignment. Have you been able to see that, and how helpful is that?
“Well, unless you’re Nick Saban or Kirby Smart, it’s beneficial to have alignment with the AD and the President. Some people, it doesn’t matter. But it matters at Auburn. And I think for the first time in recent memory, it is there. The new president understands the school he’s been there for 25 or 30 years. And John Cohen understands college football in the south. He’s also been a coach. He gets it. I remember talking to John before he took the job. He knew everything there was to know Auburn because he’d been there so many times. And we may be about to see 16 schools in the league, but it’s still a pretty small part of the world and everybody knows what’s going on. And I think these are great times for Auburn for a lot of reasons. But I think the biggest reason I mean people, ‘Man, what a terrible job. I mean, your two biggest rivals are one and two in the country.’ That’s not something to be upset about. Kirby Smart is a problem. And I think Nick Saban, short term, is a very serious issue because of who he is. But in the intermediary, at some point, Nick Saban is gone. That’s an opportunity for Auburn. I’ve watched this before. I’ve seen the transition. I covered the transition from Pat Dye and beyond. And watched the end of Bryan, and I wouldn’t have wanted to be the Auburn coach eight or nine years ago, or five years ago. But I’d like to be the Auburn coach right now. Knowing that Saban, in many ways, has a limited shelf life. You know before anybody jumps up and down, I’m not talking about this year or next, but there will come a time in the intermediate that Nick Saban is out of there. And then watch and see the chaos that reigns at Alabama trying to match what he did while Hugh Freeze, assuming he’s on solid ground, is able to take advantage of that at least within the state boundaries.”
Cohen: Okay, predictions time. What’s your realistic prediction for Auburn this year? Your dream scenario? Worst case scenario?
Finebaum: “Yeah, I think realistic is 7-5. I felt the bowl game was essential. Seven wins feels like the program is making a big turn. First thing I look at on a schedule: nonconference games. Auburn is going to be 4-0 in the non-conference. I don’t think California poses a big threat. So then you know what do you have at home? You have to help me here ‘cause I don’t have the schedule in front of me...”
Cohen: “The home SEC games would be Georgia, Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Alabama.”
Finebaum: “I think if you look at that, if you want to talk about dreams, I know every fan will tell me what happened two years ago and I appreciate it because I was at the game. But we’re not seeing a repeat of that this year. I really don’t believe that. So I think I think Auburn loses the two big games at home. Can they beat the Mississippis? Maybe? Yeah, I think it’s realistic. I think Mississippi State and Ole Miss are beatable in Jordan-Hare Stadium. So what do you have then? You have six. I think Auburn can beat Vanderbilt, that’s seven. And then can you steal a game? The road games are what? Arkansas, A&M...”
Cohen: “Arkansas A&M, LSU, Vanderbilt, and I feel like I’m missing one.” (Note: I was not missing one)
Finebaum: “Here’s where I think you can do better than seven: You beat Vanderbilt. I think that gets you to seven. Can you win in Arkansas? Maybe? I don’t think LSU or A&M are winnable. I know we love to go back in history, ‘Hey, Terry Bowden’s first year, he went undefeated. Gus Malzahn’s first year.’ All, that’s true. Tommy Tuberville’s first year and Bryan Harsin’s first year weren’t all that great. I think seven would be good. I think eight would be a dream season.”
Cohen: “Worst case, do you see a case where Auburn misses a bowl game?”
Finebaum: “I don’t see it. I think chaos would have to reign at quarterback for that to happen. Vanderbilt is capable of beating teams at home. I mean, you can’t lose to Vanderbilt. You can’t throw up at Cal. I mean, that’s how you could have a bad season. You lose games that you just have absolutely no-- Even Harsin didn’t blow that many. I mean, he blew games like just the Mississippi State game two years ago. Other games. But I mean, it wasn’t that disastrous. I still think Auburn has enough down there, has brought enough in, transfer portal, etc., a bowl game is not something I would lose sleep over.”