Countdown to Oregon State 2023 football camp: Best case scenario equals CFP berth

By Nick Daschel | The Oregonian/OregonLive
Counting down the days to the start of Oregon State’s 2023 preseason football camp on Aug. 3.
Here is the second of 10 countdown topics: The Beavers’ best-case scenario for 2023.
Previous: Best road trip
Oregon State is coming off a 10-win season, its third in school history. The Beaver fan base, and frankly, many in the media, are expecting more in 2023. OSU is as low as 7-1 by some oddsmakers to make the Pac-12 championship game.
Thing is, it’s not crazy talk.
The best-case scenario for Oregon State is a berth in the College Football Playoff. That means ending the season as one of the country’s four best teams.
We’re not predicting this will happen. We’re laying out a scenario in which it could.
The likelihood of an Oregon State entering CFP territory with a loss is remote. The Beavers probably must run the table and win the Pac-12 championship game to get a berth.
Three things must happen to pull off a 13-0. OSU’s defense must replace its veteran losses of a year ago and play at a level similar to the 2022 unit. The Beavers’ quarterback play should make a difference, to an extent that whoever is calling signals is among the conference’s top three or four quarterbacks. Everett Hayes has to kick at an all-conference level.
And a fourth: the Beavers better be lucky.
Oregon State’s schedule is a big reason why we’re having this conversation. It’s friendly. The non-conference schedule should lead to a 3-0 start. The Beavers ought to be a double-digit favorite over San Jose State, UC Davis and San Diego State. OSU’s Pac-12 schedule has most of the team’s tough games at home.
Heading into the season, it’s possible Oregon State will be favored in every game other than the regular season finale at Oregon.
Oregon State should start 4-0, including a win at Washington State, where Martin Stadium hasn’t exactly been the friendly confines of late for the Beavers.
Utah is a challenge, but this is where Oregon State truly takes remodeled Reser Stadium for a test drive. A super-charged Friday night atmosphere and momentum of a 4-0 start leads the Beavers to victory.
October has some potholes, as two of the month’s three games are outside of Corvallis. The Beavers will have to overcome the high of a win over Utah to prevail at California on Oct. 7. The following week it’s home vs. UCLA, a team the Beavers haven’t played since 2019. A wild card, for sure, but if OSU is as good as we think, the Beavers beat the Bruins. Following a bye, Oregon State plays a potentially difficult road game at Arizona, another team it hasn’t played since 2019. Might need some luck here, but we’ll bite and say Oregon State moves to 8-0 in Tucson.
Next up is easiest part of the conference schedule: at Colorado, home vs. Stanford. Even worst-case scenario Stanford is a win. The Cardinal shouldn’t be good this season. Colorado might be just as bad. The Prime Project isn’t going to produce results overnight. OSU to 10-0.
The last two weeks is one reason why Oregon State’s schedule is so good. The Beavers have a path to 10-0, with potentially their two toughest games during the final two weeks of the season. It starts with Washington. The Huskies have a Heisman Trophy candidate in quarterback Michael Penix Jr. Recall what OSU did to last year’s Heisman winner, USC’s Caleb Williams, at Reser. If OSU is equally successful, the Beavers can beat UW and set up a rivalry game of all-time at Oregon.
In July, we are not predicting a victory in Autzen. But under a best-case scenario, the Beavers can beat Oregon. They did it a year ago. They’ve won two of the past three rivalry games, albeit both times in Reser. In the short term, OSU has caught up with Oregon.
Now 12-0, Oregon State is slotted in the Pac-12 title game. Do the Beavers play USC? Oregon again? Washington? Utah? A wild card? No matter. There isn’t a team in the Pac-12 the Beavers can’t beat. For a second consecutive year, Oregon State wins a game in Allegiant Stadium and cements a berth in the College Football Playoff.
From here, anything is gravy. It’s already the best season in school history.