Analyzing Hall of Fame Cuts

 

(Editor’s Note: This is part of a series on the Pro Football Hall of Fame’s quest to select the Class of 2025 with a new process and personnel. Written by Frank Cooney, a Seniors Blue Ribbon Selection Committee member in his 32nd year as a selector. Charts in this post are best viewed on a computer screen rather than a phone.)

In the Pro Football Hall of Fame’s cutdown from 50 to 25 Modern-Era candidates for the Class of 2025, selectors showed improved respect for a few older prospects. Still, recency bias continued to reign as 15 of these semifinalists have at least 15 years of remaining eligibility.

These selections were made by the entire 49-person committee.

Three outstanding prospects with only one more year of eligibility made it (so far) —guard Steve Wisniewski, cornerback Eric Allen and running back Ricky Watters. However, three second-team All-Decade standouts were rejected in their final year and will slide into the Seniors Abyss.

Modern-Era, Seniors Selectors must create a sustainable balance

The whole process must achieve a certain equilibrium to gain and maintain integrity in these annual inductions.

Selectors must grasp the concept of a 20-year window for Modern-Era players. Player inductions should be more thoroughly scrutinized in the context of the entire Modern and Senior categories. We must prevent worthy candidates from missing their chance because the focus is on players who are more vivid in our recent memories. Selectors must do their own homework and not listen to the noise.

This year, the overburdened Seniors Committee will inherit those three former All-Decade standouts — linebacker Cornelius Bennett, defensive end Neil Smith, and tight end Ben Coates. Welcome, guys. Our apologies for the crowded conditions. Get comfortable. It will be a long stay. …possibly permanent.

In the meantime, the Seniors Committee diligently works to trim this year’s star-studded list from 167 in September to 60-something, then to 31 and nine in recent weeks. The cut to three will be announced in December. I’ll inform you about the latest moves as soon as the HOF allows. We planned to do so by now.

Apparently, the Hall’s schedule for meetings and releases has been shuffled, possibly to accommodate today’s reveal of the 25 Modern-Era players on NFL Network’s Good Morning Football. If you missed the first showing, tune in to catch it on the next loop. If Kyle Brandt is presenting, turn down the volume. If you watched his Angry Runs schtick, you already know that.

The remaining Modern-Era 25 includes SIX first-year eligibles — yes, including quarterback Eli Manning, the uncle of Texas’ QB Arch, who creates more commotion as a college backup than Uncle Eli did most of his pro career. Well, except for those two times.

Eli is an interesting case. He shows up with two Super Bowl MVPs but not a single All-Pro honor. Nada. Nichts. Pfft. But forget that he has the fewest honors of any candidate in this class. We expect discussion on his validity as a first-ballot inductee to dominate meetings. Seniors selector Gary Myers is expected to lead the charge, but it will be a hard sell.

What defines a first-ballot Hall of Famer?

I believe that for a prospect to become a first-ballot Hall of Famer, he should be in the discussion as one of the top three or four players in the history of pro football at his position. If not, there’s no rush. We have 20 years and plenty of players who deserve a spot … eventually.

With that in mind, I don’t see any sure-fire, first-ballot Hall of Famers this year. Marshal Yanda, Adam Vinatieri, and Luke Keuchly were all damn good. But this isn’t the Hall of Damn Good, it is the Hall of Fame and inductions must be held to the highest standard. As a guard, Yanda’s reception will be mild; Vinatieri was dramatic as a kicker, but he was a kicker; and Kuechly could tackle anything except those horrible concussions, and we are just happy he is ok.

A few more years might have increased Kuechly’s first-ballot potential, but we prefer that he is walking and talking when he gets that Gold Jacket — someday.

We are certain that trio will get in the HOF eventually, but there should be no rush. There are ten players with no more than a dozen years of remaining eligibility and seven with nine or fewer. Let’s get to know them well while we still can.

Ten finalists from 2024 returned, including tight end Antonio Gates, whom I thought might make it in as a first-ballot candidate last year. Is he in the discussion of the top three or four tight ends in history? I guess it depends on who is talking.

The list of 25 includes the usual gaggle of wide receivers — Torry Holt in his 11th time as a semifinalist, Reggie Wayne, Steve Smith Sr., Anquan Boldin, and Hines Ward. Seniors Selector Howard Balzer may have run out of fresh material on Holt.

Naaah, the man is a professional public speaker.

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Here is a full alphabetical list with brief intel on each semifinalist, followed by the Hall of Football’s charts showing those who made the cut and those who did not. … and more analysis.

CLASS OF 2025 SEMIFINALISTS / MODERN-ERA PLAYERS

• Eric Allen, CB – 1988-1994 Philadelphia Eagles, 1995-97 New Orleans Saints, 1998-2001 Oakland Raiders | (Times as a Semifinalist: 5 – 2021-25)

• Jared Allen, DE – 2004-07 Kansas City Chiefs, 2008-2013 Minnesota Vikings, 2014-15 Chicago Bears, 2015 Carolina Panthers | (Times as a Semifinalist: 5 – 2021-25)

• Willie Anderson, T – 1996-2007 Cincinnati Bengals, 2008 Baltimore Ravens | (Times as a Semifinalist: 5 – 2021-25)

• Anquan Boldin, WR – 2003-09 Arizona Cardinals, 2010-12 Baltimore Ravens, 2013-15 San Francisco 49ers, 2016 Detroit Lions | (Times as a Semifinalist: 4 – 2022-25)

• Jahri Evans, G – 2006-2016 New Orleans Saints, 2017 Green Bay Packers | (Times as a Semifinalist: 3 – 2023-25)

• Antonio Gates, TE – 2003-2018 San Diego/Los Angeles Chargers | (Times as a Semifinalist: 2 – 2024-25)

• James Harrison, LB – 2002-2012, 2014-17 Pittsburgh Steelers, 2013 Cincinnati Bengals, 2017 New England Patriots | (Times as a Semifinalist: 3 – 2023-25)

• Rodney Harrison, S – 1994-2002 San Diego Chargers, 2003-08 New England Patriots | (Times as a Semifinalist: 4 – 2021, 2023-25)

• Torry Holt, WR – 1999-2008 St. Louis Rams, 2009 Jacksonville Jaguars | (Times as a Semifinalist: 11 – 2015-2025)

• Luke Kuechly, LB – 2012-19 Carolina Panthers | (Times as a Semifinalist: 1 – 2025)

• Eli Manning, QB – 2004-2019 New York Giants | (Times as a Semifinalist: 1 – 2025)

• Robert Mathis, DE/LB – 2003-2016 Indianapolis Colts | (Times as a Semifinalist: 4 – 2022-25)

• Steve Smith Sr., WR – 2001-2013 Carolina Panthers, 2014-16 Baltimore Ravens | (Times as a Semifinalist: 4 – 2022-25)

• Terrell Suggs, LB/DE – 2003-2018 Baltimore Ravens, 2019 Arizona Cardinals, 2019 Kansas City Chiefs | (Times as a Semifinalist: 1 – 2025)

• Fred Taylor, RB – 1998-2008 Jacksonville Jaguars, 2009-2010 New England Patriots | (Times as a Semifinalist: 6 – 2020-25)

• Earl Thomas, DB – 2010-18 Seattle Seahawks, 2019 Baltimore Ravens | (Times as a Semifinalist: 1 – 2025)

• Adam Vinatieri, PK – 1996-2005 New England Patriots, 2006-2019 Indianapolis Colts| (Times as a Semifinalist: 1 – 2025)

• Hines Ward, WR – 1998-2011 Pittsburgh Steelers | (Times as a Semifinalist: 9 – 2017-2025)

• Ricky Watters, RB – 1992-94 San Francisco 49ers, 1995-97 Philadelphia Eagles, 1998-2001 Seattle Seahawks | (Times as a Semifinalist: 5 – 2020, 2022-25)

• Reggie Wayne, WR – 2001-2014 Indianapolis Colts | (Times as a Semifinalist: 6 – 2020-25)

• Richmond Webb, T – 1990-2000 Miami Dolphins, 2001-02 Cincinnati Bengals | (Times as a Semifinalist: 1 – 2025)

• Vince Wilfork, DT – 2004-2014 New England Patriots, 2015-16 Houston Texans | (Times as a Semifinalist: 4 – 2022-25)

• Steve Wisniewski, G – 1989-2001 Los Angeles/Oakland Raiders | (Times as a Semifinalist: 2 – 2014, 2025)

• Darren Woodson, S – 1992-2003 Dallas Cowboys | (Times as a Semifinalist: 9 – 2015, 2017, 2019-2025)

• Marshal Yanda, G/T – 2007-2019 Baltimore Ravens | (Times as a Semifinalist: 1 – 2025)

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A different Perspective

The chart below shows the 25 Modern-Era HOF candidates sorted by the fewest years of eligibility remaining before they fall into the Seniors Abyss.

Note there are five with five years or fewer of eligibility. Nine players made First or Second All-Decade, including four first-year eligibles.

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John Turney’s points system for all charts in this post: All-Decade = 5 points, Consensus All-Pro = 3, MVP/DPOY or All-Conference = 2 points each, Years played, Second-Team All-Pro, Second-Team All-Conference = 1 point each.

Turney is a long-time football historian and first-year member of the Seniors Blue Ribbon Selection Committee.

Gold background = 2024 finalist; Green Background = first-year eligible.

These are the players who survived the cut from 50 to 25, sorted by years of eligibility remaining:

 

Missed the cut

This chart shows the 25 players who did not make the cut, including three who are no longer eligible as Modern-Era candidates. The list is sorted with the fewest remaining years of eligibility at the top.

Ten of these players made First or Second-Team All-Decade, including both first-year eligibles who missed the cut. The categories from left to right are the same as in the above chart.

 

25 semifinalists listed by points for honors won

(See points system below the chart.)

Note that four of the top seven rated players are first-year eligible, which may account for some recency bias. In fact, first-ballot guard Marshal Yanda has the top score after making First or Second-team All-Pro nine times and First-Team All-Decade in his 13 years of pro football.

Just below him is another guard, Steve Wisniewski, who was First or Second-Team All-Pro eight times and was Second-Team 1990s All-Decade. Wisniewski has only one more year of Modern-Era eligibility.

Gold background = 2024 finalist; Green Background = first-year eligible.

 

John Turney’s points system for all charts in this post: All-Decade = 5 points, Consensus All-Pro = 3, MVP/DPOY or All-Conference = 2 points each, Years played, Second-Team All-Pro, Second-Team All-Conference = 1 point each.

The Hall of Football is not affiliated with the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Opinions expressed are those of the Hall of Football (HallofFootball.substack.com)