NFL Week 17: Teams Eye Playoff Spots, Home-Field Advantage
As much as some NFL fans might want to, there’s no regifting a bad NFL season. Fans of the Jets, Giants, Chargers, among others, will just have to live with the batches of tube socks and frustrating losses and wear them until next fall — or at least until the Indy combine in February.
But for fans of those teams still mathematically alive for a playoff spot, Weeks 17 and 18 are your true Christmas, wrapped up and ribboned in two weekends of game drama and scoreboard-watching anticipation.
With each succeeding NFL weekend, the games are juicier and the questions more weighty. Certainly this week is no different. Will Dallas arrest its two-game slide and keep the pressure on the Eagles, or will Detroit beat the Cowboys and make a serious push for the NFC’s best record? Will Baltimore build on its impressive road stomping of San Francisco, or will the Dolphins make all AFC postseason participants go through Miami to get to Las Vegas (the most unnecessary layover ever).
Should we care that the NFC South title could go a team clinging to .500 by its fingernails? And will this be the weekend the defending Super Bowl champs find their offense in the couch cushions?
Let us take a closer look at Week 17’s games and the playoff implications they hold.
Detroit (11-4) at Dallas (10-5), Saturday, 8:15 ET, ESPN
Winners of two in a row, the Lions came out of a rut at the same time the Cowboys headed into one. Dallas’ defense, which came up small on the final drive in the loss to Miami, must shift from combatting speed to dealing with Detroit’s physicality. The Cowboys allow 119 yards rushing and the Lions average 141 yards on the ground, third best in the league. If Dallas is able to stymie David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, then Detroit OT Penei Sewell and Taylor Decker will have their hands full dealing with Cowboys edge demon Micah Parsons. If Detroit establishes the run, then quarterback Jared Goff will attack the deep seams with the terrific rookie tight end Sam LaPorta.
On the other side the ball, both Dak Prescott (two TDs, zero INTs) and CeeDee Lamb (118 yards receiving) rebounded in the loss to Miami from the offense’s poor showing against Buffalo. Whereas Detroit’s run-pass balance is among the NFL’s best, Dallas’ attack struggles when the ground game is MIA — as it was in MIAmi. But the Lions boast a top five defense in stopping the run, which puts the onus on Prescott, Lamb and the Dallas passing game to carry the load.
A huge one for both teams. A win for Detroit keeps it in the hunt for the NFC’s best record. Dallas needs a victory to keep their NFC East hopes alive and to avoid a three-game losing streak heading into the postseason. In a showdown between two quality teams, we usually go with the more physical squad, and the Lions certainly are that. Detroit 30, Dallas 26.
— SUNDAY —
Miami (11-4) at Baltimore (12-3), 1 p.m. ET
Along with Saturday’s tilt, this is the marquee matchup of Week 17. The Ravens fly into South Beach, using their Xmas-Day beatdown of San Francisco as a tail wind. The Dolphins collected a clutch Christmas Eve win against Dallas.
As great as Lamar Jackson played Christmas night — and has for most of the season — the game’s most compelling battle will be Miami’s passing game against Baltimore’s righteous pass defense. The Ravens lead the league in sacks and might possess, in corners Marlon Humphrey and Brandon Stephens, the athleticism and cover skills to contain Tyreek Hill. Baltimore’s Kyle Hamilton, who had two interceptions against San Francisco, is redefining versatility for NFL safeties. With their personnel in both the front seven and secondary, and defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald’s complex schemes, the Ravens possess the assets to disrupt Tua Tagovailoa and Mike McDaniel’s aerial attack.
(Having said all that, let us not forget that Miami scalded the Ravens’ secondary in one of last season’s most memorable regular season games: Miami’s 42-38 comeback Week 2 win, in which they erased a 35-14 lead at the start of the fourth quarter to stun Baltimore. Tua threw six touchdowns that day.)
Of course, for Miami’s defense, all eyes will be on quarterback Jackson, who showing a greater ability than ever to dissect teams from the pocket, though he still makes plays outside of structure better than QB going. Dolphins’ DC Vic Fangio is among the NFL’s elite defensive minds, but he has his work cut out trying to slow down an offense that combines speed and force so seamlessly.
The winner of this game is champion of its respective division, but even more importantly, latches on to the AFC’s best record with one week remaining. (The Ravens get home field throughout by beating Miami; if Miami wins, they must win in Week 18 to secure the best record.) Jackson’s command of the Baltimore offense and the Ravens multivaried defense were just too impressive against the NFC’s best team on Christmas not to give them the edge. Baltimore 28, Miami 22.
New Orleans (7-8) at Tampa Bay (8-7), 1 p.m. ET
A game for all the marbles — though marbles seem to grandiose and valuable when discussing the low-rent NFL South. Maybe “for all the cheese balls,” or “~ candy corn” (insert your favorite object of little tangible value).
But no matter what you think of this division, these two teams will be laying it all on the line Sunday at Raymond James Stadium. The Saints got spanked in their last outing but come into the matchup with an extra three days of rest. The New Orleans offense continues to be a season-long work in progress; Derek Carr and company are still inconsistent and still struggle to score in the red zone. And the group might take a hit this week with the announcement Thursday that running back Alvin Kamara contracted an illness and is questionable for Sunday. Kamara not playing shifts even more pressure to receiver Chris Olave, whose 81 grabs and 1,041 yards have been bright spots in an otherwise murky season for the offense.
Unlike New Orleans, all signs point up for Tampa Bay and its offense. QB Baker Mayfield (eight TDs and zero picks in his last three starts) is playing some of the best football of his career right now. His bond with the big WR Mike Evans (13 TD catches) continues to strengthen — the two have connected on three touchdown passes in the last two games.
For New Orleans to win this game, the team’s prized asset — its defense — must step up better than it did in the loss to the Rams. Coordinator Joe Wood’s unit is tough to score on and throw on and is top five in the NFL in getting off the field on third down. It needs to slow Tampa’s offensive roll and force Mayfield into some mistakes.
But we do not see that happening. New Orleans’ defense seems a different animal away from a dome, and Mayfield is in too much of a groove. Location means everything in this game, so we’re going with the home team to win and wrap up the NFC South.
New England (4-11) at Buffalo (9-6), 1 p.m. ET
Given how good they looked the two prior weeks, the Bills needing a last-minute field goal to beat the Chargers was surprising. It should also be a sobering reminder to those hitching their postseason wagon to Buffalo that there isn’t enough lithium in the world to stabilize this team from one week to the next.
Does that mean New England has a shot in Orchard Park. Maybe. The Bills recent good play was predicated on the almost startling emergence of a productive running game. When that ground attack is missing, quarterback Josh Allen can create problems for himself by taking matters too much into his own hands. Here comes New England, second best in the NFL at stopping the run. Expect the Patriots, in the role of spoiler, to stifle the Buffalo ground game and force Allen into a couple of head-scratching turnovers.
Where the Bills will win this game is on defense, where it lines up across from one of the NFL’s truly worst offenses. The Pats managed to scrape together 23 points in the second half in shocking Denver on the road, but Bailey Zappe’s strong game feels like an aberration. The 59 yards New England rushed for against the Broncos does not. Buffalo will shut down the Patriots running game and create more turnovers than what New England’s defense does.
With the win, Buffalo still needs outcomes outside their control to land a playoff spot by Sunday night. They still have a shot at the NFC East if they win out and the Dolphins lose their final two games. Buffalo 26, New England 10.
Tennessee (5-10) at Houston (8-7), 1 p.m. ET
The storyline in this game is the return of two rookie standouts from injury: Houston’s rookie sensation C.J. Stroud and Tennessee signal-caller Will Levis. In addition to Stroud, the sputtering Texans’ offense welcomes back Nico Collins, who has been dinged up the past couple of weeks. With Stroud and a healthier Collins back in the fold, expect the Texans offense to reclaim the big-play ability that made it one of the most explosive midway through the season. Houston will also look to reestablish Devin Singletary, the team’s leading rusher, who rushed for 44 yards on just nine carries in last week’s loss to the Browns.
Levis missed last week’s game with a lower leg injury but is reportedly starting Sunday. Levis’ first year has had more ups and downs than Stroud’s, but the first-year QB from Kentucky seems born to play the role of spoiler. The matchup also features the return to Houston of receiver DeAndre Hopkins, Levis’ favorite target. The big receiver, who played his first seven years with the Texans, was quiet the past two games, catching just four passes combined. He will be motivated to bust out, and Levis is fearless in throwing passes into contested windows, which is where Hopkins excels.
Though the Texans remain one of the NFL’s biggest surprises, a loss Sunday to the Titans would be beyond disappointing. In this pressurized game, all the pressure is on Houston. Will Stroud be up for the challenge? We think he will. Houston 23, Titans 16.
Las Vegas (7-8) at Indianapolis (8-7), 1 p.m. ET
Two teams who decidedly different fortunes in Week 16. The Raiders went into Kansas City on Christmas Day and took it to their longtime division rival. The Colts come off a bitterly disappointing smackdown at the hands of Atlanta last Sunday.
The Raiders defense has been a force in recent weeks, led by stud defensive stud defensive end Maxx Crosby. But for the Raiders to beat the Colts, they must get more out of quarterback Aidan O’Connell and a passing game that mustered just 48 yards on Christmas Day. Duplicating its 3-of-12 number on third downs will not help the team’s cause either.
Having said that, the Raiders may have found a weapon in Zamir White. The young RB rushed for a career-high 145 yards in Kansas City, and the Colts rank near the bottom in stopping the run. If White similarly gashes Indianapolis, then O’Connell will have a better performance than he did last week.
In Atlanta, the Indy offense was not much better than the Raiders. After scoring a touchdown on the game’s opening drive, Gardner Minshew and his crew generated nothing more than a Matt Gay field goal. It’s hard to gauge whether that lackluster offensive performance is a one-off. Fortunately for them, Michael Pittman Jr., an emerging star wide receiver, returns to the offense. But Pittman, Minshew and the Colts’ passing game will go only as far Sunday as the running game takes them. For Minshew to have the time to find Pittman, Jonathan Taylor (43 yards on 18 carries in Atlanta) and the Indy running game need to assert itself.
This is a pivotal game for both teams. A Raiders loss and Vegas players can hit the casinos and catch any number of shows on the strip in January — they are done. For the Colts, a win means they will be watching the scoreboard, as they need help at this juncture getting into the postseason. We like the Vegas defense to control the game. Las Vegas 20, Indianapolis 17.
Los Angeles Rams (8-7) at New York Giants (5-10), 1 p.m. ET
Behind a blazing offense, the Rams are the hottest team in the NFC. The Giants won three in a row and almost caught up to the Eagles last week before losing.
For Los Angeles, quarterback Matthew Stafford is playing at an MVP level, and rookie running back Kyren Williams (1,249 scrimmage yards and 12 TDs) and the ground game continually set up Stafford to be his most effective. The Giants defense is near the bottom at stopping the run, so Williams should again go off Sunday, creating seams for receivers Cooper Kupp and rookie standout receiver Puka Nacua (96 catches) to exploit. (Injury update: Nacua is listed as questionable with hip soreness but head coach Sean McVay believes the first-year receiver will play against the Giants.)
Stafford, Williams, and company are getting the ink these days, but the Rams’ defense has been instrumental in leading them to recent wins. One setback: LB Ernest Jones, who had the game of life in last Thursday’s win over New Orleans, is “questionable” because of illness.
The Giants offense rode quarterback and New York cult hero Danny DeVito to their three wins in a row, but the backup was replaced by another backup, Tyrod Taylor, after DeVito went 9-of-16 for a paltry 55 yards. Taylor is expected to start on Sunday.
Taylor’s mobility and experience could give the Rams problems. So, too, could RB Saquon Barkley, who will be motivated to outplay Williams, his ascending counterpart. But unless both Taylor and Barkley enjoy season-best days, this game goes to the Rams, who really sweeten their playoff hopes with a win. Los Angeles 34, New York 20.
Arizona (3-11) at Philadelphia (11-4), 1 p.m. ET
Given all that’s stake in this game for Philadelphia, the Eagles will not be looking past this one and laying a turd on their playoff seeding.
Though just one game, the Eagles offense had a return form in the team’s win over the Giants last week. QB Jalen Hurts threw for 300 yards and D’Andre Swift added 92 yards on the ground, giving the Eagles the more-balanced look that defined 2022’s run to the Super Bowl. The Cardinals defense allows 212 yards passing per game — 12th best in the NFL — but they stink at stopping the run. Going up against a defense that gives up 147 yards rushing per outing should have Swift dabbing at the corners of his mouth.
Arizona’s chances in this game — as in all of them, really — comes down to the playmaking theatrics of Kyler Murray. Say what you will about him as a leader and his capabilities directing an NFL offense, the former No. 1 overall pick still does special things on the football field. Tight end Trey McBride produces big numbers in a bad offense — he is working on seven games in a row with five or more catches — and is emerging as a legit downfield threat who could put pressure on Philadelphia’s secondary, especially in the red zone, where the Eagles’ D ranks next to last in stopping offenses from scoring touchdowns.
Theoretical physics allow for the mathematical possibility of a fourth dimension. We humans can not see it. And we can’t see how the Eagles lose this game. Philadelphia 33, Arizona 13.
Carolina (2-13) at Jacksonville (8-7), 1 p.m. ET
The records suggest a lock of a win for home Jacksonville. But the Jaguars, losers of four straight, are injured and really struggling. The team received more bad news Friday with the announcement that QB Trevor Lawrence is to miss the game due to the shoulder injury suffered in Week 16.
It is likely that Lawrence would have strapped on his helmet were the opponent not 2-13. If that is Doug Pederson’s strategy, it could be a dangerous one. C.J. Beathard has played solidly in spot relief of Lawrence, but this will be his first start, and the stakes are pretty high, with all the pressure on a team spiraling downward.
The Jags’ running game did not top 100 yards in any of their four consecutive losses, and Travis Etienne Jr. (3.6 yards per carry) continues can not find running lanes. Failing to help out Beathard with a solid ground attack spells trouble — Carolina boasts the third-best pass defense in the NFL.
No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young enjoyed by far his most productive day of an otherwise rocky first year by throwing for 312 yards and two TDs in Carolina’s narrow loss to Green Bay. The Jacksonville defense is a distinct step up from the Packers unit, but if Young builds on his first ever 300-yard passing day, this game could be a very uncomfortable one for Jacksonville fans.
It seems we are leaning towards a Carolina upset. Not quite. While Jacksonville seems vulnerable, we expect Pederson to have a quality game plan in place for Beathard. Josh Allen and the Jacksonville defense create three turnovers, and the Jaguars land a big win. Jacksonville 20, Carolina 6.
San Francisco (11-4) at Washington (4-11), 1 p.m. ET
Quarterback Brock Purdy looks to bounce back from his four-interception night against Baltimore, which was much dumb luck than poor reads or throws on his part. Fortunately, he gets one of the NFL’s worst defenses in the Commanders, whose pass defense in recent weeks has been more welcoming than the halls of Congress to a K Street lobbyist. If Purdy does show any hesitation or indecisiveness, look for coach Kyle Shanahan to lean on Christian McCaffery and the running game.
The Niners’ defense also catches a break, lining up this week against one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. The Commanders are neither able to run the ball nor pass protect as Washington quarterbacks have been sacked 60 times — the most by any NFL team outside of New York. We have long held that San Francisco’s defense is overrated, and, boy, it was exposed by Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense. But even with that dismal effort and with injuries on that side the ball — Arik Armstead and rookie safety Ji’Ayir Brown are both out — San Francisco should still beat up on a poor Commanders offense. But do not be surprised if whoever is the starting QB Sunday for Washington enjoys time against the Niners’ less-than-forceful pass rush and puts up solid numbers.
Washington is moving away from quarterback Sam Howell, but backup Jacoby Brissett, named the starter this week, is questionable with a hamstring injury. So Howell may be back in the saddle come Sunday.
Coach Shanahan and his staff were thoroughly outcoached by John Harbaugh and his crew on Xmas Day. The latter group made adjustments that shut down Purdy and sliced through the Niners defense repeatedly, turning a four-point game at the half into a rout. That’s not going to happen on Sunday, as Ron “French” Rivera’s mind and spirit are likely on climes and tasks sunnier than preparing a lame-duck game plan.
San Francisco needs this win too much in order to stay atop the conference. But we would not be stunned if the 49ers struggle at points in this one. San Francisco 31, Washington 19.
Cincinnati (8-7) at Kansas City (9-6), 4:25 ET
A rematch of last year’s AFC title game features two team looking anything but of championship caliber. The Bengals were on a roll but got ambushed in Pittsburgh by a flailing Steelers team. The Chiefs just looked awful on offense in the Christmas Day loss to the Raiders.
Jake Browning again gets the start at quarterback for Cincinnati. The 27-year-old threw for 335 yards against Pittsburgh but he and team were killed by his three interceptions. This week he faces a really tough Chiefs defense which may be bending under the weight of holding up the flagging Kansas City offense for so many weeks. The Chiefs are tough to score on (17.7 points allowed), boast the No. 2 pass defense in the league and DE Chris Jones is at times downright unblockable.
Meaning that if Browning had issues against the Steelers pass defense, he could be in for a long day if he again throws 40+ times. Look for Cincinnati to feature running back Joe Mixon. If Kansas City’s offense continues misfire, then the game should be close for the Bengals’ ground game to make itself useful.
Discussing the Chiefs’ offense feels like a broken record. KC receivers continue to drop passes, taking years off Patrick Mahomes’ playing career if not his life. If Jake from State Farm were to toss Chiefs receivers a bundle, you’d have individual insurance policies scattered all over the locker room floor. The Bengals defense gives up the most chunk plays of any unit in the league — hello, George Pickens. So it seems like Cincinnati would be the antidote to Mahomes and Andy Reid’s woes and frustrations.
But we have predicted a Chiefs offensive revival at so many points this year that we have given up believing it will happen.
Still, beating Kansas City at home is a tall task for an opposing quarterback, especially one coming off a turnover-marred outing as Browning did. We think there might be turnovers on the way Sunday. Kansas City 20, Cincinnati 16.
Pittsburgh (8-7) at Seattle (8-7), 4:05 ET
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The Steelers found some will and some reserves in thumping Cincinnati at home to keep their playoff aspirations intact. The Seahawks came up with their second straight last-minute win against Tennessee.
Seattle comes in really banged up, posting 17 players on this week’s injury report. The body count includes Jamal Adams, ruled out of Sunday’s game with knee soreness. Star wideout D.K. Metcalf (back), starting running back Kenneth Walker III (shoulder) and rookie corner Devon Witherspoon (hip) are all listed as questionable.
Pittsburgh quarterback Mason Rudolph came through with a much-needed gem (290 yards, two TD passes) in a must-win situation against the Bengals last week. He’ll need to summon that level of play on the road in Seattle. Rudolph received career-day help from receiver George Pickens, who annihilated the Cincy secondary with two TD catches and 195 yards on just four grabs. Seattle’s secondary will focus on taking Pickens out of the game, or at least limiting his big-play opportunities.
Nothing controls a tough road crowd as moving the chains and controlling the clock. The Seahawks are near the bottom of the league at defending the run, so a key matchup will likely be Pittsburgh backs Najee Harris and Jaylen Harris against veteran Seattle linebacker Bobby Wagner, who continues to be tackling machine (No. 3 in the NFL with 154 tackles).
Of course, the score will dictate whether the Steelers’ ground game gets a chance to make an impact. Quarterback Geno Smith returned to the Seahawks from injury last week, played well — and played error free, avoiding interceptions against the Titans. The Seahawks’ running game continues to undermine the offense and Walker’s injury potentially makes it even less a threat. So Smith and the passing game will likely shoulder the load for another week. Look for Smith to target rookie wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba if Metcalf is limited or unable to go.
Second-year tackle Abraham Lucas draws the unenviable task of trying to slow down Pittsburgh’s star end TJ Watt, whose buzzsaw energy and tenacity could fall trees in the Great Pacific Northwest. Lucas will undoubtedly get help in dealing with Watt, but that individual battle could very well determine the game’s outcome.
Both teams are in similar positions coming into this key interconference contest — win both this game and the regular season finale and your chances for playing extra games improves dramatically. Lose and you will need to win next week and likely need a ton of help. Something about the rabidness of Lumen Field sways us towards the home team. Seattle 20, Pittsburgh 16.
Green Bay (7-8) at Minnesota (7-8), Sunday Night Football, 8:20 ET
A month ago these teams were crafting two of the more remarkable turnarounds in recent memory. But late-season losses have imperiled the playoff hopes of both and the loser of this divisional border battle watches postseason football instead of perhaps playing it.
The Packers saved their season by holding off a feisty Carolina team last week, with QB Jordan Love throwing two TDs in the win. Now Love rides a solid second half of the season into a game where Brian Flores awaits. The Minnesota defensive coordinator has developed a reputation for innovative, edge-of-skis game plans and his pressure packages did their damage against Love in the first game between these two teams in Week 8.
No doubt Flores plans to throw sand at Love’s face mask this week. Making the quarterback’s preparation even more challenging are the injuries hitting his receiver corps: WR Christian Watson is doubtful with a hamstring injury, and receiver Dontayvion Wicks (chest) is listed as questionable.
A dependable running game, which the Pack unleashed in Carolina, would be another viable solution. Aaron Jones rushed for 127 against the Panthers, but the Vikes boast a top-ten defense against the run. So expect Love to be in any number of uncomfortable dropbacks, with Danielle Hunter breathing down his neck.
Injuries are also taking their toll on the Vikings offense. Tight end T.J. Hockenson is out and star rookie receiver Jordan Addison is questionable with an ankle injury. These absences both actual and potential make life difficult to rookie quarterback Jaren Hall, who replaces Nick Mullens. Mullens threw for 411 yards against the Lions, but his four interceptions crippled his team’s chances to get a much-needed win.
One positive for Minnesota is the presence of superstar wide receiver Justin Jefferson, who seems to have made it all the way back from injury, with his 141-yard performance against Detroit.
The decision to start a rookie quarterback, while understandable, clearly tilts the advantage to the Packers. Green Bay 27, Minnesota 17.