NFL Wild Card Saturday: Playoff experience, weather may influence outcomes

The NFL playoffs kickoff with Wild Card weekend, with a Saturday doubleheader that is sure to dazzle viewers still buzzing from a stirring 2023 regular season.

Unless, of course, these fans do not subscribe to NBC’s Peacock streaming service.  

Game 1, which will be broadcast on regular old NBC for free, features an intriguing quarterback matchup pitting a young star, who will pull in the league’s Rookie of the Year, against an aging vet, pulled off the scrap heap, and whose late-season exploits puts him contention for Comeback Player of the Year. 

The nightcap sees the defending Super Bowl champs, with a struggling but still dangerous offense, hosting a one-time Super Bowl favorite, also with a sputtering but still dangerous offense. If you are unable or unwilling to pony up the $6 to help finance the NFL’s latest attempt to gouge and belittle its fans, check back here for a postgame recap. We charge only $3 for the privilege.

Here’s a look at the two games that hopefully most of you will enjoy in real time. 

Cleveland at Houston, 4:30 p.m. ET, NBC 

Thanks to a huge win over Indianapolis and a Jacksonville collapse, the Texans — the biggest surprise among all the postseason participants — are hosting a playoff game. 

Thanks to Joe Flacco, the Browns, besieged all year by injuries, enter the playoffs as dangerous as any feel-good story in recent memory.

The two teams played just a few games ago, in Week 16, also in Houston, with Cleveland coming away with a 36-22 win. Flacco cranked it up that day, throwing for 368 yards and three TDs, two of them to wideout Amari Cooper. Rookie star quarterback C.J. Stroud missed the game because of a concussion and the Texans, during a 2-3 week stretch in December, seemed wobbly, especially on the offensive side of the ball. 

Stroud returned the following week, and, in a playoffs atmosphere in Week 18, on the road in Indy, the first-year signal-caller played like a seasoned veteran, finishing with 264 yards, two TDs and a sparkling 134.1 QB rating. 

Another key to the Texans’ win over the Colts was WR Nico Collins, who turned out a huge, clutch performance (195 yards receiving). In the Browns' secondary, he’ll be going up against one of the NFL’s top defensive backfields, though corner Denzel Ward dinged his knee in practice this week and is currently questionable for the game. Expect Stroud to target a compromised Ward or his replacement. 

For Collins and Stroud to enjoy productive days, the latter needs time to throw. One of the premier individual matchups of this postseason will be Houston All-Pro LT Laremy Tunsil battling Cleveland's DPOY candidate Myles Garrett. Tunsil has a history of outperforming Garrett in head-to-head matchups — the big tackle has allowed just one quarterback pressure to Garrett in 40 one-on-one matchups since 2018 (according to Next Gen Stats). 

Even if Tunsil continues to enjoy the upper hand, the rest of the Cleveland front seven is formidable. The Browns' defense finished No. 1 overall and sported the league's best pass defense in terms of yards per game and yards per attempt allowed. It held opposing quarterbacks to a second-best 74.7 QB rating. Defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz loves his pressure schemes, and one can imagine he will go all out to befuddle and hurry a rookie in his first playoff game. 

Houston RB Devin Singletary could, therefore, be an enormous factor. Because the score dictated such, Singletary carried the ball only nine times in the first meeting. A closer game Saturday likely means Singletary exerts a greater impact — and the Texans will want to test the Browns’ middle-of-the-pack run defense rather than feed the fierce Cleveland pass rush a steady diet of obvious passing situations.

Good news for Flacco and the Browns’ offense for this game — especially this game — is the expected return of Amari Cooper. The wideout torched the Houston secondary in Week 16 for a franchise-record 265 yards and two scores but missed the last two games with a heel injury. Cooper has been held out of practice this week but is expected to go. Another Flacco favorite, tight end David Njoko, posted 100-plus yards receiving in two of his last three games. Look for him to be an asset Saturday for the Browns' offense.

As great as Flacco has played, as big an advantage as his Super Bowl background should provide, his rep for picks precedes him. There will be a chorus of “Say it ain’t so, Joe" coming from orange-and-browns households on Saturday as Flacco tosses three INTs against the Texans, which sets up short fields for Stroud and the Houston offense. Stroud will not dazzle against the tough Cleveland secondary, but he will play clean enough that his team comes out on top. Houston 27, Cleveland 22. 

Miami at Kansas City, 8:10 p.m. ET, NBC’s Peacock streaming

This game ranks right with the Lions-Rams' tilt in terms of arresting storylines: This may be star DE Chris Jones’ final game as a Chief. Miami’s standout receiver Tyreek Hill, a serious candidate for league MVP before a December injury, returns to play against the team that drafted him, and for whom he starred and won a Super Bowl. 

For those old enough to remember, the matchup calls back the Christmas Day 1971 opening-round playoff game between the two franchises, played at Kansas City’s old Municipal Stadium. The double-overtime game, won by Miami, is still, in terms of minutes played (80) the longest in NFL playoff history. It was also one of the best — comfortably in the top five of greatest postseason games ever, we say.

Here’s another storyline: Because the Dolphins failed to take care of business against Buffalo and lost the AFC East, they now must travel to the Midwest to play a football game in what is forecast to be brutally cold weather (possibly as low as -5 degrees). Will the elements freeze up Miami’s once-vaunted attack? Based on the first matchup between these two teams in London in Week 9, the Chiefs’ defense might be the more inhospitable factor.  

In the UK, Kansas City held Miami to just 14 points. The Chiefs success in thwarting Hill and Tua Tagovailoa established a blueprint that ensuing defenses deployed to varying degress of success. Steve Spagnuolo’s crew stuffed screen passes to Dolphins’ wideouts and created a game-changing turnover when KC corner Trent McDuffie — who was drafted by one of the three picks the Chiefs acquired from Miami in the Hill trade — forced a Hill fumble on a receiver screen that Bryan Cook returned 59 yards for a score.

For this game, Miami’s offensive line will be a focal point, especially since the Dolphins OL has endured a number of injuries and changing lineups this year. KC's Jones wrecks offenses and left tackle Terron Armstead will likely draw Jones on a number of assignments. How well he handles the five-time All-Pro will be pivotal in how successfully Tua pushes the ball downfield. 

Another key will be the Dolphins' running game, which can be lethal, but which Mike McDaniel abandons too readily. Raheem Mostert and rookie De’Von Achane may be asked to carry a greater load Saturday, depending on how debilitating the weather is. Even suitable conditions doesn't negate the fact that the Dolphins’ offense limps ginto the postseason, scoring just 55 points in the last the three games of the season. This from a team that scored 70 points in one game and was averaging 40 points over the first five weeks of the season.

Of course, the offense on the other sideline has nothing to brag about. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs attack never really found itself in 2023. Dropped passes, penalties, poor red-zone execution — all kept the Chiefs from being this year the points-producing juggernaut they have been since Mahomes took control in 2018.

As with Miami and its backs, the Chiefs could really use a big game Saturday from Isiah Pacheco to overcome the elements and move the chains, keeping Tuo and Tryeek tethered to the sideline. The clash between two of football’s most revered coaching minds — Chiefs’ head coach Andy Reid and Dolphins’ DC Vic Fangio — is another storyline that makes this one of the more captivating games of the opening round.

And always in cold weather, special teams may play an outsized role. Give the edge in kicking to KC and Harrison Butker, who has performed well (21-of-25 on field goal attempts) in playoff games and in games with challenging conditions.  

Both teams will be more susceptible than usual to turnovers, but Miami especially. The defending champs have been here before and that experience wins out. Also, the Mahomes-to-Travis Kielce connection always seems to rekindle when the postseason hits. Kansas City 20, Miami 17.