Thursday Night Football, Dec. 19, 8:15 p.m. ET, SoFi Stadium (Los Angeles, CA), Amazon
If you were thinking that the Denver Broncos (9-5) and the Los Angeles Chargers (8-6) have not played an important game against each in a while, you’d be right.
You have to go back a decade to find a more meaningful matchup between these two division rivals. (That occurred when Peyton Manning led the Broncos to a 24-17 Divisional Round win over the Chargers following the 2013 season.) In fact, this is the first time since 2013 that both teams play a game this late in the season with playoff implications.
To be truthful, though, tonight’s game is more about seeding than survival. Neither team can catch Kansas City for the AFC West crown, but a Denver win clinches the Broncos a playoff spot.
As it stands right now, the Chargers are in good shape, too. But an L.A. loss could make things interesting, as it would give several AFC teams (the Bengals, Dolphins and Colts) a chance this Sunday to close within a game of the Chargers for the final wild-card berth.
The Broncos (9-5) continue to ride a strong defense and the development of rookie QB Bo Nix to a surprisingly strong record. The Chargers (8-6) appear to have hit a wall, losing three of their last four, including their Week 15 game to Tampa Bay.
Denver broke open a close game in Week 15 against visiting Indianapolis by blitzing the Colts 21-0 over the final 20 minutes. The Broncos defense intercepted Indy’s Anthony Richardson twice, and linebacker Nik Bonitto picked off what was eventually ruled a lateral for a game-changing defensive score early in the final period.
Denver can’t count on turning over Justin Herbert. The Chargers’ QB went 11 games and 357 pass attempts before finally throwing an interception last week. Nix, too, had a stretch of impressive ball security, with just two picks over a 10-game span. But in the last two games, he’s thrown five, including three against the Colts, which offset his three scoring passes. He will likely need to do an about-face for Denver to win.
Both teams will want to run the ball, but neither's run game is particularly effective — surprising given the grind-happy reputations of head coach Jim Harbaugh and Chargers OC Greg Roman. After a strong first two games to start the season, L.A. back J.K. Dobbins has not rushed for 100 yards in a game since, topping 60 yards just twice. Denver’s running game has made it 100 yards as a team only twice in the last five games.
The Broncos’ run defense is one of the NFL’s best. The Chargers’ D allows 125 yards rushing per game. If you’re confident Denver’s running back by committee can take advantage, then give the home team the edge.
Otherwise, expect to see a lot of balls in the air on Thursday. Which means pass protection will be key. Statistically speaking, the Broncos get a big edge here — on both sides of the ball. The Denver offensive line has allowed just 20 sacks, third best in the league, and Nix is a mobile quarterback.
An important matchup will be Denver’s starting tackles, Garett Bolles and Mike McGlinchey, against L.A. edge rushers Khalil Mack, Joey Bosa and second-year LB Tuli Tuipulotu. Because of injuries, Mack and Bosa’s sack numbers are down, but Tuipulotu’s 7.5 have helped make up for that drop.
But that pass rush was nowhere to found in the second half of Sunday’s loss to Tampa Bay. The Bucs scored on six straight possessions, including all five after intermission, against a Chargers defense that went into the game the league’s best in points allowed. From a physical standpoint, Denver WR Courtland Sutton resembles Tampa Bay’s Mike Evans, who scalded the L.A. secondary in the second half of last Sunday’s loss. The good news for the Chargers is that Kristian Fulton, the team's best corner who has been battling a hamstring issue, was a full participant in practice on Tuesday.
Denver leads the NFL in sacks with 49. On his way to a first Pro Bowl in his third season, Bonitto leads the way with 11.5. The Chargers’ OL has surrendered 41 sacks, and two offensive linemen are listed as questionable going into Thursday. Oh, and by the way, they are protecting an injured quarterback. Herbert played through an ankle injury against Tampa but was clearly hobbled. He’s been limited in practice this week.
Something tells us we should favor a home team with the more experienced QB (Herbert) over a visiting squad starting a rookie (Nix). However, the Chargers seem to staggering to the finish line. Meanwhile, Denver is making key plays, especially on the defensive side of the ball. We’re going with the visitors.
PICK: Denver 26, Los Angeles Chargers 21
Key matchup: WR Courtland Sutton (DEN) vs. CB Kristian Fulton (LAC)
Key matchup: T Mike McGlinchey (DEN) vs. Edge rusher Khalil Mack (LAC)
Key matchup: Edge rusher Nik Bonitto (DEN) vs. T Rashawn Slater (LAC)
