NFL Divisional Round: New cast of QB stars highlight postseason marquee

The conferences’ top seeds get their first taste of postseason action Saturday. And though the Ravens and 49ers play upstart franchises, both games project as anything but walkovers.

The two games also showcase four of the league’s best and most intriguing quarterbacks — none of which are named Mahomes, Allen, Rodgers, or Brady. The cast is made up of mostly up-and-coming signal-callers, and they signal that the future of the NFL’s most impactful and glamorous position is in good hands.

Here we take a deeper dive into Saturday’s Divisional Round contests. Don't forget to check out our Divisional previews for Sunday's games.

AFC — Houston (No. 4) at Baltimore (No. 1), 4:15 p.m. ET, ABC-ESPN

Eyes will be focused on the quarterback matchup as the upstart Texans visit the top-seeded Ravens. And that attention is deserved: Houston’s C.J. Stroud is the front-runner for Rookie of the Year; Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson holds the pole position for league MVP. 

Stroud comes off a scintillating performance in the Wild Card win over Cleveland — especially in a decisive first half — with 274 yards passing and three touchdowns, and a sparkling 157.2 quarterback rating. Jackson comes off three weeks of inactivity, and the Texans hope that some rust has built up and that projected freezing temps for Saturday keeps that rust in place.

Suffice it say, the Texans are a different team than the one the Ravens beat at M&T Bank Stadium all the way back in Week 1. Behind Stroud, the Houston offense evolved over the ensuing weeks into one of the league’s most dynamic, particularly when the running of Devin Singletary balanced an ever-improving passing game. 

Terrific defending the pass, Baltimore’s defense can be run on (allowing 109 yards rushing per game). Expect Houston OC Bobby Slowik to involve Singletary and the ground game early. A consistent running game will help Stroud say out of obvious passing situations against a blitz-happy Baltimore defense that led the NFL with 60 sacks. 

That means there will be a lot of pressure on the Laremy Tunsil and Texans’ OL to control the line of scrimmage. Tunsil was special in the Wild Card win, completely neutralizing Cleveland’s star end Myles Garrett, but the big LT was rolled up on by a teammate on an point-after kick and is dealing with a knee issue. 

Baltimore DC Mike Macdonald brings his defenders from every direction, and multiple players are pass-rushing threats, including the terrific second-year safety, Kyle Hamilton, whose elite versatility netted him an All-Pro selection. Hamilton did miss the final two games of the season with a knee issue but is expected to play Saturday.

Watch also for how the Ravens’ back end contends with Houston’s emerging superstar receiver Nico Collins — a task made potentially more challenging with Pro Bowl corner Marlon Humphrey, out since the Week 17 game, still missing practice with a calf issue. He’s currently questionable for Saturday’s game.

On the other side of the ball, 2023 showed Lamar Jackson putting together his most efficient passing season since his 2019 MVP campaign. And everyone knows about the threat his running poses. Jackson hopes for a healthy Zay Flowers (calf) to be available Saturday, and there was even a Mark Andrews sighting at practice this week. The Pro Bowl tight end, placed on injured reserve in mid-November (knee), is hoping to return at some point during the playoffs, if not this Saturday. 

Containing Jackson is easier said than done — at least for most teams. It should be noted that in that Week 1 game in Baltimore, the Texans did hold Jackson to 169 yards passing and 38 yards rushing, while sacking him four times. Also, the only NFL defense to gave up fewer passing TDs this season than the Ravens is…Houston. 

The Ravens butter their bread through the running game. RB Gus Edwards and Justice Hill, along with Jackson, pace a rushing attack that averaged 156 yards per game. But here again, the Texans seem to match up fairly well; Houston was No. 6 in the NFL in defending the run (96 YPG) and shut down Edwards and Jackson in the opener. In the Wild Card Round win, the Texans held Cleveland backs to just 43 yards rushing on 17 carries.

So there is precedent for Houston frustrating Jackson, limiting his play-making prowess, and thwarting the Ravens’ running game. But will they do so again lo these many weeks later? We like the Texans to make a game of this, but Baltimore’s ground game will control the clock, and its pressure packages on defense will be force Stroud into a couple of key mistakes. Also, placekicker Justin Tucker's powerful leg and consistency in the clutch can not be minimized in a close game. Baltimore 26, Houston 20. 

NFC — Green Bay (No. 7) at San Francisco (No. 1), 8:15 p.m. ET, FOX

The Packers charge into Levi’s Stadium with more momentum and confidence than any No. 7 team rightfully should. Awaiting them are the top-seed San Francisco 49ers, whose 13-4 record reflected their status as the NFC’s best team for most of the season. As with the Ravens, many of the 49ers key starters have not played a meaningful game in three weeks but are expected to douse Green Bay’s hopes of making a deep postseason run.

Stroud v. Jackson should be riveting, but Jordan Love against Brock Purdy does not take a back seat when it comes to promising quarterback matchups. Love blew minds and the doors off the Cowboys’ defense in Green Bay's stunning Wild Card Rounnd win. In his first-ever postseason game, the third-year pro exhibited calm and patience, executing Matt LeFleur’s masterful game plan to perfection. 

As great as Love has been in recent weeks, Green Bay’s recent surge coincided with the return to form of running back Aaron Jones. Slowed by injury most of the season, a healthy Jones ran off four straight 100-yard games, including a 118-yard day in Dallas, when he, led by the offensive line, repeatedly gashed the Cowboys' front seven.

The 49ers’ interior run defense gets a boost with the return of DT Arik Armstead, out several weeks because of knee and foot issues. The Niners, with All-Pro LB Fred Warner chasing down runners sideline to sideline, finished No. 1 against the run, but the Ravens and Cardinals ran the ball effectively against San Francisco in back-to-back late December games. 

Two culprits stand out when the 49ers’ defense fails to live up to its top billing. One is poor tackling. And Jones is a load to bring down when he gets to the second level.  

The other problem is the pass rush. Niners fans are right to be nervous about the Pack’s aerial attack. Love and his coltish receiving corps, led by Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson, are at peak sync right now. Though it tied for seventh in sacks (48), the Niners’ defense struggled to get off the field — finishing 23rd on third-down defense — and the first-round-studded D-line underperformed in obvious passing situations.

Green Bay’s offensive line more than held its own against a fierce Dallas pass rush and has to feel confident it can do so again. A key individual matchup will be Chase Young against Rasheed Walker, Green Bay's second-year left tackle. Young, a much-heralded midseason acquisition whose impact has been spotty, replaces injured starter Clelin Farrell (knee). If Young and his DL mates are slow to generate pressure, the Niners’ secondary, led by Pro Bowl corner Charvarius Ward, will be vulnerable.

A gloomy assessment of San Francisco's pass defense? Maybe. The one stat in its favor is that it led the NFL with 22 interceptions. But Love has been careful with the ball, throwing just one interception since Week 11. 

On paper, the other side of ball clearly favors the 49ers offense. The team scored 491 points in 2023, the franchise’s second most ever in a season. Brock Purdy produced one of the great passing years in 49ers history, a history rich in quarterbacking excellence. He throws to the best collection of talent in the NFL. And the most physical. Tight end George Kittle and WR Deebo Samuel are punishing runners, so secure tackling and limiting yards after the catch will play a major role in a Green Bay upset.

Alongside Samuel is Brandon Aiyuk, the team's leading receiver and most explosive downfield threat. Green Bay’s best corner, Jaire Alexander, missed practice this week with a lingering ankle injury. If able to play, he would likely match up against Aiyuk, in what might be the game’s best individual battle.

The Packers' defense, solid in defending the pass with rush specialist Rashan Gary (nine sacks) coming off the edge, is a bend-but-don't-break unit. It is top 10 in the league in keeping teams out of the end zone, so another key for Green Bay advancing to the NFC title game will be limiting Niners scoring drives to Jake Moody field goals. Meanwhile, the Niners are excellent in the red zone, converting such opportunities into six points more than 67 percent of the time. 

Purdy and the aforementioned skill players are elite, but the driving force of Kyle Shanahan’s offense is Christian McCaffery. The league’s leading rusher is also the NFL’s most versatile player, as dangerous a receiver as a runner. And Shanahan skillfully positions McCaffery in mismatches where he can showcase that versatility. The Packers finished 28th in the NFL against the rush, allowing 128 rushing yards per game. If the Niners play from in front, expect McCaffery and the running game to dominate. 

That leads us to the key of the game: which team gets the jump on the other. Against Dallas, the Packers won the toss and took the ball. Their opening-drive TD immediately applied pressure to a Dallas offense that was unable to find a rhythm all first half. The 49ers were marvelous on opening drives all season, scoring on 12 such possessions (10 TDs, two FGs), and showcasing Shanahan’s prodigious game-planning chops. 

Playing almost exclusively from in front, however, raises one question: Can the 49ers play from behind? Though a small sample size, their track record in 2023 was not promising. None of their wins featured a double-digit deficit. In all of their losses, Purdy and Co. failed to mount a comeback down more than 10 points (losses to Cincinnati, Baltimore) or come through late in one-possession games (Cleveland, Minnesota). Purdy also struggled throwing the ball in rainy conditions in Cleveland and rain is in the forecast for late Saturday afternoon. 

If the Packers break from the gate first, can Purdy lead his team if the score makes the Niners' offense more one-dimensional? For all of the second-year QB’s brilliance this season, this unanswered question heading into the playoffs is cause for anxiety within the Niners’ fanbase. 

The Packers pose a legit threat Saturday, as the 49ers’ defense feels too unreliable to see them holding Green Bay under 24 points. But the Niners are the healthiest they have been all season, and McCaffery, Purdy et al. present too much firepower and finish drives too well. San Francisco 33, Green Bay 24.