Michigan a top-5 team in Phil Steele's college football preview

Experience matters, particularly at positions like quarterback, and that’s a main reason why Phil Steele, who annually produces a massive college football preview magazine — 352 densely packed pages this year — believes Michigan will be in national-championship contention again this year. The Wolverines have gone 25-3 the last two seasons, with two straight wins over Ohio State, and back-to-back Big Ten titles and College Football Playoff appearances. But, in both CFP games, they were denied in the national semifinals, first by eventual 2021 national champion Georgia and last year by TCU. Steele, who spoke to 122 of the 133 head coaches for input into this year’s preview magazine, said he ranked Michigan No. 3 in his top-40 preseason poll in large part because of returning experience. The Wolverines were No. 66 last year on his experience chart, and this year they are No. 7. “This is a team that was favored in a playoff game and, granted, they did not play well against TCU, nowhere near expectations, but it's a team that beat Ohio State last year and won the Big Ten convincingly, and I think they're better than they have been the last two years when they made the playoffs,” Steele said in an interview with The Detroit News. “Of all the main contenders out there this year, they're basically the only one with a returning starting quarterback in J.J. McCarthy, and I think they're going to open it up for McCarthy a little bit. I thought they had a leash on him last year, and this year, they’ll let him throw the football downfield, and that's going to make them a little bit more dangerous.” Steele rates Michigan’s running backs No. 1 nationally based on the returns of veterans Blake Corum, who was in Heisman Trophy contention before suffering a knee injury in the final home game last season, and Donovan Edwards, who lifted the Wolverines late last season in Corum’s absence despite also dealing with injuries. C.J. Stokes and Tavierre Dunlap also return, and freshmen Cole Cabana and Ben Hall were early-enrollees. Michigan’s offensive line has won the Joe Moore Award as the nation’s top line the last two seasons, and Steele, the only non-former offensive lineman/coach who sits on the Moore Award committee, ranks the group No. 2 heading into this season. While he projects Corum as a first-team All-America selction, he also has guard Zak Zinter on the first team. He likes the offensive line additions from the transfer portal, including Drake Nugent from Stanford, penciled in as starting center this fall, and LaDarius Henderson from Arizona State at left tackle. Both have been multi-year starters. Michigan also added former Stanford offensive lineman Myles Hinton. “Those are three pretty good acquisitions for the offensive line, getting three veteran guys like that,” Steele said. “A lot of these transfers, they transfer because they're not playing. These guys transferred but were playing.” He ranks Michigan’s receivers No. 39 overall, but with the belief McCarthy will be throwing more, the receivers may gain more respect. Overall, though, with McCarthy, the running backs and offensive line, he said based on his computer-generated numbers, Michigan will average 479 yards a game this fall, up 20 yards from last year. The offense will be guided by offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore, who was co-coordinator the last two seasons while also coaching the offensive line. “That’s a potent offense,” Steele said. Defensively, Michigan is more experienced than it was last year, Steele said, and the three position groups rank in the top 10 — defensive line (sixth), linebackers (fifth) and defensive backs (seventh). Defensive tackle Kris Jenkins is on Steele’s preseason third-team All-America. “The experience thing, once again going back to it, it is big,” he said. What concerns Steele, however, is Michigan’s special teams, which went from the No. 1 ranking in his assessment last season, to No. 32 entering this year with the departures of kicker Jake Moody and punter Brad Robbins, both NFL Draft picks this spring. He feels good about the Wolverines’ kicking game with the transfer-portal addition of James Turner from Louisville, where he made 20 of 22 field-goal attempts last year, but believes replacing Robbins may be the bigger issue. Tommy Doman likely will take over at punter. Michigan’s returning experience plays a big role in why Steele has the Wolverines ranked preseason No. 3, but their schedule also is a major factor. Michigan opens with four straight at home and has road games against Nebraska, Minnesota, Michigan State, Penn State and Maryland, with Ohio State playing at Michigan Stadium. He ranks Michigan’s schedule toughness at No. 67. “Naturally, getting Ohio State at home is huge,” Steele said. “But, if you look at the nonconference schedule, it is very easy. East Carolina's not even what East Carolina was last year, and the pull-over games from the West are Nebraska, Minnesota and Purdue, so that's great.” He gives the Wolverines the edge over Ohio State in part because the Buckeyes, with a toughest-schedule rank of No. 27, face Penn State then at Wisconsin, Steele’s picks as the surprise team of the year, entering the final month of the season. “That's why I went with Michigan and also, Jim Harbaugh is 2-1 against Ryan Day,” he said. Steele works 100-plus-hour weeks for a seven-month stretch to make the magazine’s deadline in June, and after a brief break, work begins in earnest again. There are plenty of stories and data to digest, and Steele recommends first checking out the top-40 list, then the articles in the front of the magazine and then your favorite teams and their opponents this year. “I don’t think anybody really reads all 133 teams, but I put the same amount of effort into Sam Houston State that I do into Michigan or Ohio State,” he said. The magazine can be purchased at Barnes & Noble, Books-A-Million and also from his website, philsteele.com.