Where will UNT end up in the American's preseason media poll? Here's our projection

Football season is nearly upon us.
The signs are everywhere. The preseason football magazines are on newsstands and media days are underway.
North Texas will make its debut at the American Athletic Conference’s event beginning Monday.
One of the staples of media day every year is the media poll. The writers who cover each school are asked to submit their ballots and project how they see the league shaping up.
Votes were due a few days ago, when I turned mine in.
So, how will the core media members rank the teams in the league, and where will UNT wind up among the 14 teams in the American?
Our guess accompanies this story. Here’s how I arrived at it.
UNT lands somewhere in the middle
There’s a lot to like about UNT heading into the 2023 season.
The Mean Green have one of the best groups of running backs in the league with Ayo Adeyi returning along with Ikaikia Ragsdale, Isaiah Johnson and Oscar Adaway III.
Eric Morris has injected new life into the program after taking over as the Mean Green’s coach in the offseason.
The hope is those running backs and a new voice leading the way in Morris will help UNT overcome some of the challenges it faces.
The Mean Green lost quarterback Austin Aune when he declared for the NFL draft and still haven’t picked his replacement. The defense is undergoing a complete overhaul, a host of key players graduated, and several others transferred out.
UNT certainly doesn’t look like it belongs in the top tier of teams. The Mean Green don’t look like a cellar-dweller either. Expect UNT to land somewhere near the middle in a season it is projected to finish around .500.
Four teams separate near the top
The American looks like a four-team race heading into the season.
Tulane finished 12-2 in 2022 after beating Central Florida in the conference title game and USC in the Cotton Bowl. The Green Wave have quarterback Michael Pratt back and will be among the favorites in the league again. The top tier of teams will also include UTSA, SMU and Memphis.
UTSA won the Conference USA title last season and returns star quarterback Frank Harris along with several other key players. Memphis has former Ryan quarterback Seth Henigan back and will be a contender.
SMU lost quarterback Tanner Mordecai to Wisconsin, but has highly regarded sophomore Preston Stone ready to step in. The Mustangs also pulled a host of highly regarded players from the transfer portal, including TCU transfer wide receiver Jordan Hudson.
Those four teams — Tulane, UTSA, Memphis and SMU — will all certainly be sitting at the top of the poll.
FAU will likely be the top team with a new coach
The American will have seven new coaches this season, a particularly high number for a league with 14 teams.
Morris will join former Texas and Houston coach Tom Herman (Florida Atlantic), former Indiana coach Kevin Wilson (Tulsa), Trent Dilfer (UAB), Biff Poggi (Charlotte), Brian Newberry (Navy) and Alex Golesh (South Florida) to fill out the lineup of new coaches.
UNT is in a good spot when compared to those programs. When it comes to which one of them is picked the highest in the preseason poll, though, FAU will likely come out ahead.
The Owls landed transfer quarterback Casey Thompson, who spent time at Nebraska and Texas and have several solid players around him.
We’ll know for sure how the poll shapes up early next week. Stay tuned.