5 reasons Clemson makes the CFP in 2023 — and 5 reasons Tigers won't

CLEMSON — Two months remain before a Sept. 4 opener at Duke, and the range of possible outcomes for Clemson's season appears especially wide. A program that has recruited top 10 classes, which has won seven of the last eight ACC titles, and just hired an exciting new play-caller in Garrett Riley, could be in store for one its best seasons in a handful of years. But a program that lost three games apiece in 2021 and 2022, and just fell to rival South Carolina before flopping in a bowl loss to Tennessee, could be trending toward a third straight non-playoff campaign. Clemson seems uniquely capable of continuing on either track, given the roster's mix of strengths and question marks. With that in mind, let's sketch out the makings of each future, offering five reasons the Tigers will return to the college football playoff in 2023 — and five reasons why they won't. 1. Klubnik ascends Riley's scheme has a track record of getting receivers open, and he also has a knack for getting quarterbacks to play with confidence. Max Duggan, a backup in preseason camp, finished a Heisman runner-up. Riley works his magic with Cade Klubnik, who brings decisiveness, quick feet, and tempo to a resurgent offense. And the challenge of defending Clemson's offense only intensifies because ... 2. Shipley, Mafah roll This offense derives its passing concepts from the "Air Raid," but the stretching of defenses widens rushing lanes for Will Shipley and Phil Mafah. Behind an experienced offensive line, which could be the deepest and most talented unit since 2020, defenses are torn between Klubnik's deep shots and a double gut punch of two talented running backs. Riley, known for his even split of run and pass plays, runs defenses ragged. 3. The front seven dominates As opponents spend far too much time on defense, Clemson has a front seven that makes it incredibly hard for offenses to string drives together. The Tigers are the deep up the middle with returning defensive tackles Tyler Davis, Ruke Orhorhoro, and Payton Page but also the arrival of much-hyped freshman Peter Woods. They also sport, arguably, the best linebacker duo in college football with juniors Jeremiah Trotter Jr. and Barrett Carter. If Clemson discovers a pass-rusher or two, whether it's a veteran like Xavier Thomas or youngsters like TJ Parker and Jahiem Lawson — look out. 4. Promised progress On both sides of the ball, untapped potential flows forth. Some combination of Antonio Williams, Adam Randall, Beaux Collins, and Cole Turner offers consistent playmaking at receiver. Jake Briningstool, the 6-foot-7, 230-pound tight end, becomes a true matchup nightmare. Tristan Leigh, the former five-star, reaches his ceiling at left tackle, and the Tigers' long-promised depth on the offensive line finally reveals itself. Andrew Mukuba reverts to form at safety, Nate Wiggins locks down at corner, and Clemson is especially complete because ... 5. The freshmen are legit This isn't just about Woods. Parker, David Ojiegbe, and AJ Hoffler are highly touted prospects at defensive end. Shelton Lewis provided evidence in the spring he might push Toriano Pride Jr. and Jeadyn Lukus at corner. By Gene Sapakoff If, for example, Ronan Hanafin clicks at receiver, and Harris Sewell plugs in on the offensive line, Khalil Barnes fights for playing time at safety, and Avieon Terrell and Branden Strozier deepen the mix at corner — this is suddenly a roster with few holes and even a few insurance policies. But that's a nearly perfect picture. Now, here's what could muddy the fantasy. 1. Klubnik slumps Remember when DJ Uiagalelei took a star turn at Notre Dame in 2020? Just because Klubnik lit up North Carolina's secondary in the ACC title game doesn't guarantee he takes leaps and bounds as a sophomore. Yes, Klubnik is his own player, and he has Riley to aid in his development. But let Uiagalelei's journey serve as a reminder of what's possible. First-year starters suffer growing pains. Pocket awareness fails. Throws are forced. Turnovers end drives and it's too much to overcome because ... 2. The receiver corps isn't elite Not only have the Tigers lacked a 1,000-yard receiver over two seasons, but Williams led the pack in that span with a 604-yard campaign as a freshman. Williams is back but Clemson needs Collins (shoulder injuries), Randall (knee injuries), and Turner (three games played in 2022) to stretch the field. What if they don't strike fear into defenses? Shipley and Mafah are squeezed. 3. The secondary falters, again So many veterans return in the secondary, but cornerback Sheridan Jones (neck/hip) and safeties Mukuba (elbow/knee) and Tyler Venables (hamstring) haven't always been healthy. Wiggins improved as his sophomore season went along, but the search for another corner in Jones' stead led to anxiety-inducing moments in 2022. Just because everyone returns doesn't mean they improve. Just because there is freshman talent in the room doesn't mean they thrive. A front-loaded Clemson defense remains vulnerable on the back end and shootouts prove dicey. 4. Not just for kicks If Clemson ends up in a shootout, like last season at Wake Forest, does redshirt freshman Robert Gunn III make a field goal to force overtime, like B.T. Potter? Can he smash a 52-yarder in the ACC title game, like Potter? By Jon Blau jblau@postandcourier.com Until kickers are in the moment, it's hard to know how slow a heart beats. And if the Tigers don't find consistency at punter, either, special teams could blow Clemson's margin for error in heartbreaking ways. 5. A key injury or two The top line of Clemson's depth chart could flourish, across the board. But Klubnik is backed by a true freshman Christopher Vizzina, a former walk-on (Hunter Helms), and a transfer (Paul Tyson) who combine for 285 career passing yards. The Tigers' senior edge-rushing duo of Justin Mascoll (two career sacks) and Thomas (limited to three games in 2022) band-aid a green rotation. On the offensive line, Clemson returns four of five starters, but All-ACC left tackle Jordan McFadden was a big piece and any added loss brings discontinuity to a line that's been perpetually searching for functional depth. If the Tigers' reserves don't prove trustworthy, a failed linchpin or two could send Clemson's season in a very different direction.